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St. Pauli

W L W W D
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Freiburg

W L W L D
OpWin AI Probabilities
St. Pauli 31% Draw 27% Freiburg 42%
✨ OpWin Pro Predictions
Winner
Freiburg
Confidence: 42%
Double Chance
X2
Confidence: 69%
Safe Goals
Over 1.5
Confidence: 76%
BTTS
No
Confidence: 47%
Correct Score
0-1
Confidence: 9%

St. Pauli Season

Rank#16
Points24
Matches Left8

Freiburg Season

Rank#8
Points34
Matches Left8

St. Pauli Last 5

VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 - 0
SV Werder Bremen 2 - 1
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 1
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 0

Freiburg Last 5

SV Werder Bremen 1 - 0
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 1
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 3

Head-to-Head

No recent meetings found.

Form Analysis

St. Pauli
6W - 6D - 14L
Freiburg
9W - 7D - 10L

St. Pauli Performance

⚔️ Efficiency
0.92
Attacks75
Dangerous30
Avg Shots8.5
🛡️ Defense 1.62

Freiburg Performance

⚔️ Efficiency
1.46
Attacks118
Dangerous47
Avg Shots13.4
🛡️ Defense 1.69

Match Statistics

45% Possession 55%
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4

* Projected stats.

Expected Goals (xG)

St. Pauli
1.23
Freiburg
1.48

Live Commentary & Analysis

📝 Pre-match analysis 08:09 PM

In a highly anticipated Bundesliga clash, St. Pauli welcomes Freiburg to their home ground in a match that promises to be both competitive and engaging. According to the math model, Freiburg is predicted to win with a confidence level of 42%, largely attributed to their strong performance metrics compared to St. Pauli. The model employs a poisson distribution analysis to forecast outcomes based on historical data, showing that Freiburg has a higher offensive ability and a more consistent defense, which translates to lower odds for goals conceded. This statistical insight feeds into strategic 1x2 predictions where bettors might find value bets on Freiburg's victory, reinforcing the idea that combo bets incorporating Freiburg to win alongside a safety pick of X2 could offer favorable returns. The recommended bets also suggest an expectation of over 1.5 goals, but a 'Both Teams To Score' (BTTS) prediction of no reflects St. Pauli's recent struggles in front of goal. Thus, this match represents an intriguing opportunity for keen bettors looking for betting tips and insights, particularly around ensuring variance analysis is accounted for when evaluating odds. The St. Pauli vs Freiburg prediction leans heavily toward the away side taking all three points, making them a focal point in any betting strategy.

📅 22 Mar 2026
📍 their home ground

Standings & Context

Currently, St. Pauli sits at position #16 (24 pts). They face Freiburg who occupy the #8 spot (34 pts).

Performance Analysis

Looking at numbers, St. Pauli has averaged 0.92 goals at home. Freiburg travels with an away scoring record of 1.46 goals.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.