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AD Ceuta FC
L L L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Almeria
W W D D W
1X2 Almeria 55%
O/U Under 3.5 79%
DC X2 86%
BTTS Yes 58%
OpWin AI Probabilities
AD Ceuta FC 20% Draw 24% Almeria 55%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between AD Ceuta FC and Almeria?

Our prediction for the AD Ceuta FC–Almeria match is: Almeria to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Almeria to win (55% confidence); under 3.5 goals (79% confidence); both teams to score: yes (58% confidence)

AD Ceuta FC

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, AD Ceuta FC scored an average of 0.60 goals and conceded 2.40 per match.

Almeria

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Almeria scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): AD Ceuta FC scored 0.60 and conceded 2.40 per match across 5 covered games; Almeria scored 2.20 and conceded 1.00 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Jordi Escobar contributed 1 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.45/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Miguel de la Fuente contributed 5 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.76/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Almeria records a mean of 6.69/10 versus 6.26/10 for AD Ceuta FC.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list José Juan Romero for AD Ceuta FC and Rubí for Almeria. The latest recorded formations are AD Ceuta FC in 4-3-3 (Nov 7, 2026) and Almeria in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, AD Ceuta FC averaged 52.5% possession and 17.5 shots per match (5.0 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Almeria averaged 51.7% possession and 12.9 shots (4.7 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 6 recent home matches, AD Ceuta FC recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, averaging 0.67 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Away from home, Almeria recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in 6 matches, averaging 2.17 points, 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match. The away side’s recent road record compares favourably with the home side’s home record.

This Segunda División fixture takes place at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for AD Ceuta FC: 0.7 points per home match compared with 0.2 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.28 — 1.57 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

130%AD Ceuta FC
X26%Draw
243%Almeria
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes58%
No42%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 79%U 21%
O/U 2.5O 54%U 46%
O/U 3.5O 32%U 68%
O/U 4.5O 16%U 84%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

AD Ceuta FC
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 96%

The model assigns 96% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for AD Ceuta FC.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 86%

A different goal line with 86% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 72%U 28%
1.5O 37%U 63%
2.5O 14%U 86%
3.5O 4%U 96%
Almeria
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Almeria.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

AD Ceuta FC21%
Almeria28%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

AD Ceuta FC14%
Almeria21%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

AD Ceuta FC41%
Almeria59%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

AD Ceuta FC
-1.5W 13%P 0%L 87%
-1W 13%P 17%L 70%
-0.5W 30%P 0%L 70%
0W 30%P 26%L 43%
+0.5W 57%P 0%L 43%
+1W 57%P 21%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Almeria
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 21%L 57%
-0.5W 43%P 0%L 57%
0W 43%P 26%L 30%
+0.5W 70%P 0%L 30%
+1W 70%P 17%L 13%
+1.5W 87%P 0%L 13%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.55%
#21-29.10%
#30-18.30%
#42-17.43%
#50-27.09%
Combined Top 544.47%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

AD Ceuta FC + BTTS16%
Almeria + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

AD Ceuta FC Season

Rank#22
Points5
Matches Left25

Almeria Season

Rank#1
Points29
Matches Left25

AD Ceuta FC Last 5

Cordoba 3 - 0
Sporting Gijon 0 - 2
Cadiz 3 - 1
Oviedo 1 - 2
Sabadell 1 - 2

Almeria Last 5

Girona 0 - 1
Eibar 1 - 1
Oviedo 2 - 2
Real Sociedad II 2 - 4
Leganes 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

AD Ceuta FC: 1 Draws: 0 Almeria: 1
2026 Almeria 4 - 2 AD Ceuta FC
2025 AD Ceuta FC 3 - 2 Almeria

Form Analysis

AD Ceuta FC
L L L L L
Almeria
W D D W W

AD Ceuta FC Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.86
Goals scored6
Goals conceded12
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.71

Almeria Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.29
Goals scored9
Goals conceded5
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.71

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

AD Ceuta FC
0.68
Almeria
1.68

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria is a Football football match on November 23, 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. Recent form is 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses (form: LLLLL) for AD Ceuta FC and 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: WDDWW) for Almeria. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 23 Nov 2026
📍 Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, AD Ceuta FC is currently #22 with 5 points from 13 matches, while Almeria is #1 with 29 points from 13. Recent head-to-head history: AD Ceuta FC won 1, 0 were drawn and Almeria won 1 across the last 2 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows AD Ceuta FC at 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per home match, versus Almeria at 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 0.68 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.68 for Almeria.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.