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Ajax
W W D D W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

AZ Alkmaar
D W L W D
1X2 Ajax 53%
O/U Over 2.5 76%
DC 1X 71%
BTTS Yes 67%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Ajax 53% Draw 25% AZ Alkmaar 22%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Ajax and AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction for the Ajax–AZ Alkmaar match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Ajax to win (53% confidence); Ajax to win or draw (71% confidence); both teams to score: yes (67% confidence)

Ajax

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Ajax scored an average of 3.60 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

AZ Alkmaar

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, AZ Alkmaar scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Ajax and AZ Alkmaar average 4.80 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Brandt contributed 5 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 8.06/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Meerdink contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.14/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Ajax records a mean of 6.85/10 versus 6.53/10 for AZ Alkmaar.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list J. Heitinga for Ajax and M. Martens for AZ Alkmaar. The latest recorded formations are Ajax in 4-3-3 (Oct 18, 2026) and AZ Alkmaar in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Ajax averaged 62.3% possession and 24.2 shots per match (8.8 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 6 matches, AZ Alkmaar averaged 60.5% possession and 14.7 shots (5.7 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Ajax recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, averaging 1.25 points, 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per match. Away from home, AZ Alkmaar recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in 3 matches, averaging 1.33 points, 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Eredivisie fixture takes place at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam).

Ajax's recent home record is weaker than its away record: 1 defeats in 4 home matches, averaging 1.3 points per home match compared with 3.0 away.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.83 — 1.59 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

143%Ajax
X24%Draw
233%AZ Alkmaar
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes67%
No33%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 86%U 14%
O/U 2.5O 66%U 34%
O/U 3.5O 45%U 56%
O/U 4.5O 26%U 74%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Ajax
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 89%

The model assigns 89% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Ajax.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 84%U 16%
1.5O 54%U 46%
2.5O 28%U 72%
3.5O 11%U 89%
AZ Alkmaar
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for AZ Alkmaar.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Ajax20%
AZ Alkmaar16%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Ajax17%
AZ Alkmaar12%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Ajax56%
AZ Alkmaar44%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Ajax
-1.5W 24%P 0%L 76%
-1W 24%P 20%L 57%
-0.5W 43%P 0%L 57%
0W 43%P 24%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 17%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
AZ Alkmaar
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 17%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 24%L 43%
+0.5W 57%P 0%L 43%
+1W 57%P 20%L 24%
+1.5W 76%P 0%L 24%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.26%
#22-18.68%
#31-27.56%
#42-26.91%
#52-05.46%
Combined Top 538.87%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Ajax + BTTS27%
AZ Alkmaar + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

Ajax Season

Rank#4
Points18
Matches Left29

AZ Alkmaar Season

Rank#2
Points20
Matches Left29

Ajax Last 5

Groningen 2 - 5
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1
Excelsior 2 - 2
Willem II 5 - 1
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 5

AZ Alkmaar Last 5

Cambuur 2 - 2
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2 - 1
Feyenoord 2 - 0
Telstar 1 - 0
Willem II 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Ajax: 0 Draws: 2 AZ Alkmaar: 3
2026 AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Ajax
2026 AZ Alkmaar 6 - 0 Ajax
2025 Ajax 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar
2025 Ajax 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar
2025 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax

Form Analysis

Ajax
W D D W W
AZ Alkmaar
D L W D W

Ajax Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.20
Goals scored11
Goals conceded9
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.80

AZ Alkmaar Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.20
Goals scored11
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax
2.33
AZ Alkmaar
1.76

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie football match on October 31, 2026 at Johan Cruyff Arena. Recent form is 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: WDDWW) for Ajax and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: DLWDW) for AZ Alkmaar. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 31 Oct 2026
📍 Johan Cruyff Arena

Standings & Context

In the Eredivisie standings, Ajax is currently #4 with 18 points from 9 matches, while AZ Alkmaar is #2 with 20 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: Ajax won 0, 2 were drawn and AZ Alkmaar won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Ajax at 2.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per home match, versus AZ Alkmaar at 2.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.33 for Ajax and 1.76 for AZ Alkmaar.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.