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Alverca
D L W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Arouca
W D L D W
1X2 Alverca 46%
O/U Under 2.5 63%
DC 1X 67%
BTTS Yes 59%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Alverca 46% Draw 28% Arouca 26%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Alverca and Arouca?

Our prediction for the Alverca–Arouca match is: Alverca to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Alverca to win (46% confidence); under 2.5 goals (63% confidence); both teams to score: yes (59% confidence)

Alverca

Across the 4 most recent finished matches with available data, Alverca scored an average of 2.25 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

Arouca

Across the 4 most recent finished matches with available data, Arouca scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Alverca scored 2.25 and conceded 1.00 per match across 4 covered games; Arouca scored 1.00 and conceded 1.00 across 4.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Chiquinho contributed 2 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.37/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, N. Djouahra contributed 0 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.87/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Alverca records a mean of 6.94/10 versus 6.63/10 for Arouca.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Leandro Pires for Alverca and Vasco Seabra for Arouca. The latest recorded formations are Alverca in 3-4-3 (Oct 12, 2026) and Arouca in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 11, 2026). Across 4 recent matches with possession and shot data, Alverca averaged 39.5% possession and 13.3 shots per match (5.0 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 4 matches, Arouca averaged 49.8% possession and 11.0 shots (3.5 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

This Primeira Liga fixture takes place at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca (Alverkaduribajo).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Alverca, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.45 — 1.42 Reliability 80%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

138%Alverca
X26%Draw
236%Arouca
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes59%
No41%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 79%U 21%
O/U 2.5O 54%U 46%
O/U 3.5O 32%U 68%
O/U 4.5O 16%U 84%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Alverca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Alverca.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%
Arouca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Arouca.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 76%U 24%
1.5O 41%U 59%
2.5O 17%U 83%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Alverca24%
Arouca23%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Alverca18%
Arouca17%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Alverca51%
Arouca49%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Alverca
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 19%L 63%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 63%
0W 38%P 26%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 19%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Arouca
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 19%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 26%L 38%
+0.5W 63%P 0%L 38%
+1W 63%P 19%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.59%
#22-18.45%
#31-28.26%
#41-07.58%
#50-17.40%
Combined Top 544.28%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Alverca + BTTS20%
Arouca + BTTS19%
Draw + BTTS20%

Alverca Season

Rank#8
Points11
Matches Left26

Arouca Season

Rank#5
Points14
Matches Left26

Alverca Last 5

Famalicao 1 - 4
Rio Ave 1 - 0
Nacional 1 - 3
SC Braga 1 - 2
Santa Clara 1 - 1

Arouca Last 5

Estrela 1 - 0
Sporting CP 2 - 2
Santa Clara 1 - 2
Estoril 0 - 0
Maritimo 2 - 1

Head-to-Head

Alverca: 1 Draws: 0 Arouca: 1
2026 Alverca 2 - 1 Arouca
2025 Arouca 1 - 0 Alverca

Form Analysis

Alverca
W W W L D
Arouca
W D L D W

Alverca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.25
Goals scored5
Goals conceded5
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.25

Arouca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.75
Goals scored3
Goals conceded4
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alverca
1.11
Arouca
1.05

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Alverca vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga football match on October 24, 2026 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLD) for Alverca and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: WDLDW) for Arouca. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Standings & Context

In the Primeira Liga standings, Alverca is currently #8 with 11 points from 8 matches, while Arouca is #5 with 14 points from 8. Recent head-to-head history: Alverca won 1, 0 were drawn and Arouca won 1 across the last 2 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Alverca at 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home match, versus Arouca at 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.11 for Alverca and 1.05 for Arouca.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.