What is the prediction for the football match between Atalanta and Parma?
Our prediction for the Atalanta–Parma match is: Atalanta to win or draw.
Other OPWIN picks
Atalanta to win (52% confidence); under 3.5 goals (77% confidence); both teams to score: yes (59% confidence)
Atalanta
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Atalanta scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.
Parma
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Parma scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.
How the recent evidence fits the pick
Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Atalanta scored 1.40 and conceded 2.00 per match across 5 covered games; Parma scored 0.80 and conceded 2.00 across 5.
Players to watch
Across 5 recent recorded appearances, N. Krstović contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.10/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 3 recent recorded appearances, Pontus Almqvist contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.88/10 across 3 rated appearances.
Recent squad-performance signal
Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Atalanta records a mean of 6.65/10 versus 6.39/10 for Parma.
Tactical matchup and recent shapes
The current record lists I. Juric as coach of Atalanta. The latest recorded formations are Atalanta in 4-3-3 (Oct 18, 2026) and Parma in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 19, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, Atalanta averaged 44.4% possession and 14.4 shots per match (4.6 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 5 matches, Parma averaged 43.2% possession and 11.6 shots (3.8 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.
Home and away performance
In 3 recent home matches, Atalanta recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.00 points, 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Away from home, Parma recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 points, 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.
This Serie A fixture takes place at New Balance Arena (Bergamo).
Recent results show that Atalanta have a stronger record at home than away: 2 wins in 3 home matches, averaging 2.0 points per home match compared with 0.0 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.
This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.