OpWin.

VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Palmeiras

W D W W W
1X2 Atletico Paranaense 42%
O/U Over 1.5 76%
DC 1X 69%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Atletico Paranaense 42% Draw 26% Palmeiras 31%
Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Free Pick Accuracy25%
Premium Expected goals 1.56 — 1.52 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

138%Atletico Paranaense
X25%Draw
236%Palmeiras
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 82%U 18%
O/U 2.5O 59%U 41%
O/U 3.5O 37%U 63%
O/U 4.5O 20%U 80%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Atletico Paranaense
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Atletico Paranaense.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Palmeiras
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Palmeiras.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Atletico Paranaense22%
Palmeiras21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Atletico Paranaense17%
Palmeiras16%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Atletico Paranaense51%
Palmeiras49%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Atletico Paranaense
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 19%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 25%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 19%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Palmeiras
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 19%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 25%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 19%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.73%
#22-18.49%
#31-28.25%
#41-06.55%
#52-26.44%
Combined Top 541.46%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Atletico Paranaense + BTTS22%
Palmeiras + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

Match Timeline

6' ⚽ Maurício Magalhães Prado
9' 🟥 Gilberto
10' ⚽ Joaquín Piquerez
22' 🟥 Andreas Pereira
35' 🟥 Joaquín Piquerez
43' 🟥 Andreas Pereira
45' 🔄 In: jorge rivaldo
45' 🔄 In: Marlon Freitas
45' 🔄 In: Claudinho
52' 🔄 In: Bruno Zapelli
57' 🟥 Leonardo Caetano Silva
65' 🔄 In: Jhon Arias
67' 🔄 In: chiqueti
72' 🔄 In: Emiliano Martínez
72' 🔄 In: Arthur Gabriel
87' 🔄 In: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
90' 🔄 In: Luis Benedetti

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense Home
  • Mycael
  • Arthur Dias
  • J. Aguirre
  • Luiz Gustavo
  • Gilberto
  • Jádson
  • Felipinho
  • S. Mendoza
  • Leozinho
  • João Cruz
  • K. Viveros
Palmeiras Away
  • Carlos Miguel
  • Bruno Fuchs
  • Murilo
  • A. Barboza
  • Khellven
  • Lucas Evangelista
  • Andreas Pereira
  • J. Piquerez
  • J. López
  • Maurício
  • R. Sosa

Atletico Paranaense Season

Rank#3
Points53
Matches Left7

Palmeiras Season

Rank#2
Points66
Matches Left7

Atletico Paranaense Last 5

Palmeiras 0 - 2
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4
Atletico-MG 2 - 2
Bahia 2 - 1
Coritiba 3 - 3

Palmeiras Last 5

Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2
Corinthians 4 - 1
Bahia 1 - 0
Gremio 0 - 0
Sao Paulo 2 - 0

Head-to-Head

Atletico Paranaense: 1 Draws: 1 Palmeiras: 3
2026 Palmeiras 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
2024 Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras
2024 Palmeiras 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense
2023 Palmeiras 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
2023 Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Palmeiras

Form Analysis

Atletico Paranaense
L W D W D
Palmeiras
W W W D W

Atletico Paranaense Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.69
Goals scored27
Goals conceded15
Matches16
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.94

Palmeiras Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.63
Goals scored26
Goals conceded12
Matches16
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.75

Match Statistics

24Shots6
6Shots on Target3
16Corners1
64%Possession36%
2Yellow Cards1

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Paranaense
1.46
Palmeiras
1.23

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Brasileirão football match on October 17, 2026 at Arena da Baixada. Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: LWDWD) for Atletico Paranaense and 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWDW) for Palmeiras. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 Finished
📍 Arena da Baixada

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Atletico Paranaense is currently #3 with 53 points from 31 matches, while Palmeiras is #2 with 66 points from 31. Recent head-to-head history: Atletico Paranaense won 1, 1 were drawn and Palmeiras won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Atletico Paranaense at 1.69 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per home match, versus Palmeiras at 1.63 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.46 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.23 for Palmeiras. For this finished match, the recorded prediction accuracy is 25% (result: 0 - 2).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.