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Bahia
W L L W L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Sao Paulo
W L L W W
1X2 Sao Paulo 38%
O/U Under 2.5 60%
DC 1X 85%
BTTS Yes 59%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Bahia 35% Draw 27% Sao Paulo 38%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Bahia and Sao Paulo?

Our prediction for the Bahia–Sao Paulo match is: Bahia to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Sao Paulo to win (38% confidence); under 2.5 goals (60% confidence); both teams to score: yes (59% confidence)

Bahia

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Bahia scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

Sao Paulo

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sao Paulo scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Bahia scored 0.80 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Sao Paulo scored 1.00 and conceded 1.00 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Luciano Juba contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.93/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, J. Calleri contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.33/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Sao Paulo records a mean of 6.75/10 versus 6.59/10 for Bahia.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Rogério Ceni for Bahia and Machado Roger for Sao Paulo. The latest recorded formations are Bahia in 5-3-2 (Oct 18, 2026) and Sao Paulo in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Bahia averaged 50.0% possession and 12.2 shots per match (3.8 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 7 matches, Sao Paulo averaged 48.3% possession and 15.1 shots (3.9 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador).

Recent results show that Bahia have a stronger record at home than away: 3 wins in 4 home matches, averaging 2.3 points per home match compared with 1.0 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.58 — 1.33 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

142%Bahia
X26%Draw
231%Sao Paulo
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes59%
No41%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 80%U 20%
O/U 2.5O 56%U 44%
O/U 3.5O 33%U 67%
O/U 4.5O 17%U 83%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Bahia
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Bahia.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Sao Paulo
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sao Paulo.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 38%U 62%
2.5O 15%U 85%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Bahia26%
Sao Paulo21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Bahia20%
Sao Paulo14%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Bahia57%
Sao Paulo43%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Bahia
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 21%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 26%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 17%L 14%
+1.5W 86%P 0%L 14%
Sao Paulo
-1.5W 14%P 0%L 86%
-1W 14%P 17%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 26%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 21%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.48%
#22-19.01%
#31-07.78%
#41-27.60%
#52-06.75%
Combined Top 543.62%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Bahia + BTTS22%
Sao Paulo + BTTS17%
Draw + BTTS20%

Bahia Season

Rank#7
Points49
Matches Left7

Sao Paulo Season

Rank#9
Points42
Matches Left7

Bahia Last 5

Flamengo 0 - 3
Mirassol 1 - 0
Palmeiras 1 - 0
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1
Remo 2 - 1

Sao Paulo Last 5

Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0
Vitoria 2 - 1
Cruzeiro 2 - 0
Santos 1 - 2
Internacional 1 - 0

Head-to-Head

Bahia: 1 Draws: 1 Sao Paulo: 3
2026 Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia
2025 Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Bahia
2025 Bahia 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
2024 Bahia 0 - 3 Sao Paulo
2024 Sao Paulo 3 - 1 Bahia

Form Analysis

Bahia
L W L L W
Sao Paulo
W W L L W

Bahia Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.44
Goals scored23
Goals conceded17
Matches16
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.06

Sao Paulo Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.73
Goals scored11
Goals conceded22
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.47

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia
1.59
Sao Paulo
0.71

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Bahia vs Sao Paulo is a Brasileirão football match on October 28, 2026 at Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova. Recent form is 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: LWLLW) for Bahia and 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: WWLLW) for Sao Paulo. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 28 Oct 2026
📍 Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Bahia is currently #7 with 49 points from 31 matches, while Sao Paulo is #9 with 42 points from 31. Recent head-to-head history: Bahia won 1, 1 were drawn and Sao Paulo won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Bahia at 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per home match, versus Sao Paulo at 0.73 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.59 for Bahia and 0.71 for Sao Paulo.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.