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Bolton
W W L W D
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Middlesbrough
D D W W D
1X2 Middlesbrough 45%
O/U Over 2.5 75%
DC X2 69%
BTTS Yes 66%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Bolton 33% Draw 22% Middlesbrough 45%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Bolton and Middlesbrough?

Our prediction for the Bolton–Middlesbrough match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Middlesbrough to win (45% confidence); Middlesbrough to win or draw (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (66% confidence)

Bolton

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Bolton scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Middlesbrough

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Middlesbrough scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Bolton and Middlesbrough average 3.80 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Gaizka Larrazabal contributed 1 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.65/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, W. Lankshear contributed 4 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.71/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Middlesbrough records a mean of 6.93/10 versus 6.63/10 for Bolton.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists R. Edwards as coach of Middlesbrough. The latest recorded formations are Bolton in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026) and Middlesbrough in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Bolton averaged 46.2% possession and 13.7 shots per match (5.0 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. Across 6 matches, Middlesbrough averaged 58.3% possession and 20.7 shots (7.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

This Championship fixture takes place at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich).

Bolton's recent home record is weaker than its away record: 2 defeats in 3 home matches, averaging 1.0 points per home match compared with 2.3 away.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.63 — 1.70 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

136%Bolton
X24%Draw
239%Middlesbrough
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes66%
No34%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 65%U 35%
O/U 3.5O 43%U 57%
O/U 4.5O 24%U 76%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Bolton
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Bolton.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Middlesbrough
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Middlesbrough.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Bolton18%
Middlesbrough20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Bolton14%
Middlesbrough15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Bolton48%
Middlesbrough52%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Bolton
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 24%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 19%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Middlesbrough
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 19%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 24%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.64%
#21-28.41%
#32-18.06%
#42-26.86%
#50-15.51%
Combined Top 539.48%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Bolton + BTTS22%
Middlesbrough + BTTS24%
Draw + BTTS20%

Bolton Season

Rank#15
Points14
Matches Left27

Middlesbrough Season

Rank#3
Points22
Matches Left27

Bolton Last 5

Southampton 0 - 0
Wolves 1 - 3
Stoke City 1 - 2
Norwich 3 - 4
Cardiff 1 - 0

Middlesbrough Last 5

Cardiff 2 - 2
Stoke City 2 - 3
Wolves 1 - 0
Birmingham 2 - 2
Millwall 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

Bolton: 0 Draws: 0 Middlesbrough: 5
2024 Middlesbrough 3 - 0 Bolton
2023 Bolton 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
2019 Bolton 0 - 2 Middlesbrough
2018 Middlesbrough 2 - 0 Bolton
2017 Middlesbrough 2 - 0 Bolton

Form Analysis

Bolton
D W L W W
Middlesbrough
D W W D D

Bolton Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.20
Goals scored6
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

Middlesbrough Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.60
Goals scored8
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bolton
1.77
Middlesbrough
2.24

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Bolton vs Middlesbrough is a Football football match on October 23, 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses (form: DWLWW) for Bolton and 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses (form: DWWDD) for Middlesbrough. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 23 Oct 2026
📍 Toughsheet Community Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Bolton is currently #15 with 14 points from 11 matches, while Middlesbrough is #3 with 22 points from 11. Recent head-to-head history: Bolton won 0, 0 were drawn and Middlesbrough won 5 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Bolton at 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per home match, versus Middlesbrough at 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.77 for Bolton and 2.24 for Middlesbrough.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.