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Burnley
L L D D L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Birmingham
W L W W W
1X2 Birmingham 49%
O/U Under 3.5 79%
DC X2 78%
BTTS Yes 59%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Burnley 26% Draw 25% Birmingham 49%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Birmingham?

Our prediction for the Burnley–Birmingham match is: under 3.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Birmingham to win (49% confidence); Birmingham to win or draw (78% confidence); both teams to score: yes (59% confidence)

Burnley

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Burnley scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 2.40 per match.

Birmingham

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Birmingham scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 0.60 per match.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, A. Hountondji contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.96/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Stansfield contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.17/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Birmingham records a mean of 6.76/10 versus 6.45/10 for Burnley.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list S. Parker for Burnley and H. Redknapp for Birmingham. The latest recorded formations are Burnley in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026) and Birmingham in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Burnley averaged 44.8% possession and 13.7 shots per match (4.4 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 10 matches, Birmingham averaged 53.0% possession and 15.6 shots (6.1 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Burnley recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, averaging 0.75 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match. Away from home, Birmingham recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.80 points, 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. The away side’s recent road record compares favourably with the home side’s home record.

This Championship fixture takes place at Turf Moor (Burnley).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Burnley: 0.8 points per home match compared with 0.8 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.36 — 1.55 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

133%Burnley
X26%Draw
241%Birmingham
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes59%
No41%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 79%U 21%
O/U 2.5O 56%U 45%
O/U 3.5O 33%U 67%
O/U 4.5O 17%U 83%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Burnley
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Burnley.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 39%U 61%
2.5O 16%U 84%
3.5O 5%U 95%
Birmingham
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Birmingham.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Burnley21%
Birmingham26%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Burnley15%
Birmingham20%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Burnley44%
Birmingham56%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Burnley
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 18%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 26%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 20%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Birmingham
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 20%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 26%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 18%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.41%
#21-28.89%
#32-17.77%
#40-17.74%
#51-06.68%
Combined Top 543.49%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Burnley + BTTS18%
Birmingham + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

Burnley Season

Rank#22
Points10
Matches Left23

Birmingham Season

Rank#1
Points29
Matches Left23

Burnley Last 5

Cardiff 5 - 4
QPR 1 - 1
Portsmouth 0 - 0
Lincoln 4 - 1
Wolves 1 - 2

Birmingham Last 5

Swansea 2 - 1
Millwall 3 - 0
Lincoln 1 - 3
Cardiff 1 - 0
QPR 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

Burnley: 2 Draws: 3 Birmingham: 0
2022 Burnley 3 - 0 Birmingham
2022 Birmingham 1 - 1 Burnley
2016 Birmingham 1 - 2 Burnley
2015 Burnley 2 - 2 Birmingham
2014 Birmingham 3 - 3 Burnley

Form Analysis

Burnley
L D D L L
Birmingham
W W W L W

Burnley Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.14
Goals scored8
Goals conceded10
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.43

Birmingham Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.29
Goals scored9
Goals conceded6
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.86

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Burnley
0.89
Birmingham
1.48

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Burnley vs Birmingham is a Football football match on November 25, 2026 at Turf Moor. Recent form is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: LDDLL) for Burnley and 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLW) for Birmingham. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 25 Nov 2026
📍 Turf Moor

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Burnley is currently #22 with 10 points from 15 matches, while Birmingham is #1 with 29 points from 15. Recent head-to-head history: Burnley won 2, 3 were drawn and Birmingham won 0 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Burnley at 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per home match, versus Birmingham at 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 0.89 for Burnley and 1.48 for Birmingham.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.