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CF Pachuca
L L W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Toluca
D D D D W
1X2 CF Pachuca 48%
O/U Over 2.5 76%
DC 1X 69%
BTTS Yes 68%
OpWin AI Probabilities
CF Pachuca 48% Draw 24% Toluca 28%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between CF Pachuca and Toluca?

Our prediction for the CF Pachuca–Toluca match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

CF Pachuca to win (48% confidence); CF Pachuca to win or draw (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (68% confidence)

CF Pachuca

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, CF Pachuca scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Toluca

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Toluca scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, CF Pachuca and Toluca average 4.20 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, S. Rondón contributed 4 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.58/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, F. Viñas contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.30/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists J. Lozano as coach of CF Pachuca. The latest recorded formations are CF Pachuca in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026) and Toluca in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, CF Pachuca averaged 49.0% possession and 16.9 shots per match (5.5 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 8 matches, Toluca averaged 58.4% possession and 17.1 shots (6.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, CF Pachuca recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, averaging 1.25 points, 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per match. Away from home, Toluca recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in 4 matches, averaging 0.75 points, 2.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Liga MX fixture takes place at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for CF Pachuca: 1.3 points per home match compared with 1.5 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.80 — 1.63 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

142%CF Pachuca
X24%Draw
234%Toluca
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes68%
No32%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 86%U 14%
O/U 2.5O 66%U 34%
O/U 3.5O 45%U 55%
O/U 4.5O 26%U 74%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

CF Pachuca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 89%

The model assigns 89% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for CF Pachuca.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 84%U 16%
1.5O 54%U 46%
2.5O 27%U 73%
3.5O 11%U 89%
Toluca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Toluca.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

CF Pachuca20%
Toluca16%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

CF Pachuca16%
Toluca13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

CF Pachuca55%
Toluca45%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

CF Pachuca
-1.5W 23%P 0%L 77%
-1W 23%P 19%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 24%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 17%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Toluca
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 17%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 24%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 19%L 23%
+1.5W 77%P 0%L 23%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.39%
#22-18.54%
#31-27.72%
#42-26.95%
#52-05.25%
Combined Top 538.85%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

CF Pachuca + BTTS26%
Toluca + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

CF Pachuca Season

Rank#8
Points22
Matches Left22

Toluca Season

Rank#4
Points27
Matches Left22

CF Pachuca Last 5

Atlas 1 - 4
Tigres UANL 3 - 0
Club America 1 - 2
Cruz Azul 1 - 2
Monterrey 2 - 1

Toluca Last 5

Monterrey 4 - 0
Club America 2 - 2
Leon 1 - 1
Club Tijuana 2 - 2
Atletico San Luis 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

CF Pachuca: 2 Draws: 2 Toluca: 1
2026 CF Pachuca 2 - 0 Toluca
2026 Toluca 0 - 1 CF Pachuca
2026 CF Pachuca 1 - 1 Toluca
2025 Toluca 2 - 2 CF Pachuca
2025 Toluca 3 - 2 CF Pachuca

Form Analysis

CF Pachuca
W W W L L
Toluca
W D D D D

CF Pachuca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.86
Goals scored13
Goals conceded13
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.86

Toluca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.63
Goals scored13
Goals conceded10
Matches8
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.25

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

CF Pachuca
2.29
Toluca
1.81

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

CF Pachuca vs Toluca is a Football football match on November 21, 2026 at Estadio Hidalgo. Recent form is 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: WWWLL) for CF Pachuca and 1 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses (form: WDDDD) for Toluca. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Estadio Hidalgo

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, CF Pachuca is currently #8 with 22 points from 16 matches, while Toluca is #4 with 27 points from 16. Recent head-to-head history: CF Pachuca won 2, 2 were drawn and Toluca won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows CF Pachuca at 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per home match, versus Toluca at 1.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.29 for CF Pachuca and 1.81 for Toluca.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.