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Coritiba
D L L D L
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Gremio
L D D D L
1X2 Coritiba 44%
O/U Over 2.5 58%
DC 1X 65%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Coritiba 44% Draw 23% Gremio 33%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Coritiba and Gremio?

Our prediction for the Coritiba–Gremio match is: Coritiba to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Coritiba to win (44% confidence); over 2.5 goals (58% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Coritiba

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Coritiba scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 2.80 per match.

Gremio

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Gremio scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Coritiba scored 0.80 and conceded 2.80 per match across 5 covered games; Gremio scored 1.20 and conceded 1.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Josué contributed 0 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.98/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Wallace contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.08/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists Mano Menezes as coach of Gremio. The latest recorded formations are Coritiba in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026) and Gremio in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Coritiba averaged 43.5% possession and 12.8 shots per match (3.3 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 7 matches, Gremio averaged 48.9% possession and 13.0 shots (4.3 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 3 recent home matches, Coritiba recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses, averaging 0.67 points, 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. Away from home, Gremio recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in 3 matches, averaging 0.33 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Coritiba: 0.7 points per home match compared with 0.8 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.61 — 1.55 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

139%Coritiba
X25%Draw
236%Gremio
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Coritiba
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Coritiba.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Gremio
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Gremio.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Coritiba21%
Gremio20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Coritiba16%
Gremio15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Coritiba52%
Gremio48%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Coritiba
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 19%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 25%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Gremio
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 25%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 19%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.37%
#22-18.51%
#31-28.19%
#42-26.58%
#51-06.28%
Combined Top 540.93%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Coritiba + BTTS22%
Gremio + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

Coritiba Season

Rank#12
Points39
Matches Left7

Gremio Season

Rank#18
Points31
Matches Left7

Coritiba Last 5

Atletico-MG 1 - 0
Botafogo 1 - 1
Fluminense 4 - 0
Vasco DA Gama 5 - 0
Atletico Paranaense 3 - 3

Gremio Last 5

Cruzeiro 2 - 4
Internacional 1 - 1
Remo 1 - 1
Palmeiras 0 - 0
Botafogo 3 - 2

Head-to-Head

Coritiba: 0 Draws: 1 Gremio: 4
2026 Gremio 1 - 0 Coritiba
2023 Coritiba 1 - 2 Gremio
2023 Gremio 5 - 1 Coritiba
2021 Coritiba 1 - 1 Gremio
2020 Gremio 2 - 1 Coritiba

Form Analysis

Coritiba
L D L L D
Gremio
L D D D L

Coritiba Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.33
Goals scored20
Goals conceded20
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.33

Gremio Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.60
Goals scored9
Goals conceded23
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.53

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Coritiba
1.55
Gremio
1.47

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Coritiba vs Gremio is a Brasileirão football match on October 26, 2026 at Couto Pereira. Recent form is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: LDLLD) for Coritiba and 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (form: LDDDL) for Gremio. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 26 Oct 2026
📍 Couto Pereira

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Coritiba is currently #12 with 39 points from 31 matches, while Gremio is #18 with 31 points from 31. Recent head-to-head history: Coritiba won 0, 1 were drawn and Gremio won 4 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Coritiba at 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per home match, versus Gremio at 0.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.55 for Coritiba and 1.47 for Gremio.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.