OpWin.

Home

De Graafschap

L W D W L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Waalwijk

W L D L D
1X2 De Graafschap 50%
O/U Under 3.5 79%
DC 1X 91%
BTTS Yes 58%
OpWin AI Probabilities
De Graafschap 50% Draw 26% Waalwijk 24%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?

Our prediction for the De Graafschap–Waalwijk match is: De Graafschap to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

De Graafschap to win (50% confidence); under 3.5 goals (79% confidence); both teams to score: yes (58% confidence)

De Graafschap

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, De Graafschap scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

Waalwijk

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Waalwijk scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): De Graafschap scored 1.40 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Waalwijk scored 1.60 and conceded 1.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, F. de Jong contributed 1 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.63/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. van de Haar contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.79/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list M. Dijkhuizen for De Graafschap and H. Fraser for Waalwijk. The latest recorded formations are De Graafschap in 4-3-3 (Oct 19, 2026) and Waalwijk in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, De Graafschap averaged 54.6% possession and 13.4 shots per match (4.6 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 5 matches, Waalwijk averaged 47.6% possession and 12.8 shots (5.0 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

This Eerste Divisie fixture takes place at De Vijverberg (Dutinghem).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for De Graafschap, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.66 — 1.24 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

146%De Graafschap
X26%Draw
228%Waalwijk
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes58%
No42%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 79%U 21%
O/U 2.5O 55%U 45%
O/U 3.5O 33%U 67%
O/U 4.5O 17%U 83%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

De Graafschap
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for De Graafschap.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Waalwijk
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 96%

The model assigns 96% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Waalwijk.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 87%

A different goal line with 87% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 71%U 29%
1.5O 35%U 65%
2.5O 13%U 87%
3.5O 4%U 96%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

De Graafschap29%
Waalwijk19%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

De Graafschap23%
Waalwijk13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

De Graafschap63%
Waalwijk37%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

De Graafschap
-1.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
-1W 25%P 22%L 54%
-0.5W 46%P 0%L 54%
0W 46%P 26%L 28%
+0.5W 72%P 0%L 28%
+1W 72%P 16%L 12%
+1.5W 88%P 0%L 12%
Waalwijk
-1.5W 12%P 0%L 88%
-1W 12%P 16%L 72%
-0.5W 28%P 0%L 72%
0W 28%P 26%L 46%
+0.5W 54%P 0%L 46%
+1W 54%P 22%L 25%
+1.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.22%
#22-19.38%
#31-08.40%
#42-07.55%
#51-27.00%
Combined Top 544.55%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

De Graafschap + BTTS24%
Waalwijk + BTTS15%
Draw + BTTS20%

De Graafschap Season

Rank#1
Points0
Matches Left38

Waalwijk Season

Rank#12
Points0
Matches Left38

De Graafschap Last 5

Jong Ajax 2 - 1
Jong Utrecht 2 - 1
FC Eindhoven 2 - 2
Den Bosch 1 - 0
NAC Breda 1 - 2

Waalwijk Last 5

FC Volendam 1 - 1
Heracles 3 - 0
Emmen 1 - 1
Roda 2 - 0
MVV 6 - 1

Head-to-Head

De Graafschap: 3 Draws: 1 Waalwijk: 1
2026 De Graafschap 2 - 4 Waalwijk
2025 Waalwijk 1 - 4 De Graafschap
2018 De Graafschap 1 - 0 Waalwijk
2017 Waalwijk 0 - 0 De Graafschap
2017 De Graafschap 4 - 0 Waalwijk

Form Analysis

De Graafschap
L
Waalwijk
D

De Graafschap Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
—
Goals scored0
Goals conceded0
Matches0
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)—

Waalwijk Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
—
Goals scored0
Goals conceded0
Matches0
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)—

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

De Graafschap
1.88
Waalwijk
0.50

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is a Football football match on October 23, 2026 at Stadion De Vijverberg. Recent form is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: L) for De Graafschap and 0 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: D) for Waalwijk. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 23 Oct 2026
📍 Stadion De Vijverberg

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, De Graafschap is currently #1 with 0 points from 0 matches, while Waalwijk is #12 with 0 points from 0. Recent head-to-head history: De Graafschap won 3, 1 were drawn and Waalwijk won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows De Graafschap at — goals scored and — conceded per home match, versus Waalwijk at — goals scored and — conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.88 for De Graafschap and 0.50 for Waalwijk.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.