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FSV Mainz 05
W L W L W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Werder Bremen
W D W D D
1X2 FSV Mainz 05 40%
O/U Over 2.5 71%
DC 1X 62%
BTTS Yes 66%
OpWin AI Probabilities
FSV Mainz 05 40% Draw 24% Werder Bremen 36%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen?

Our prediction for the FSV Mainz 05–Werder Bremen match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

FSV Mainz 05 to win (40% confidence); FSV Mainz 05 to win or draw (62% confidence); both teams to score: yes (66% confidence)

FSV Mainz 05

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, FSV Mainz 05 scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.

Werder Bremen

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Werder Bremen scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen average 5.00 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, P. Tietz contributed 5 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.84/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, N. Füllkrug contributed 6 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.94/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list U. Fischer for FSV Mainz 05 and O. Werner for Werder Bremen. The latest recorded formations are FSV Mainz 05 in 3-5-2 (Oct 17, 2026) and Werder Bremen in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, FSV Mainz 05 averaged 51.0% possession and 17.0 shots per match (6.4 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 5 matches, Werder Bremen averaged 46.0% possession and 15.0 shots (7.6 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 3 recent home matches, FSV Mainz 05 recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, averaging 0.33 points, 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match. Away from home, Werder Bremen recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in 3 matches, averaging 0.67 points, 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Bundesliga fixture takes place at MEWA Arena (Mainz).

FSV Mainz 05's recent home record is weaker than its away record: 2 defeats in 3 home matches, averaging 0.3 points per home match compared with 3.0 away.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.71 — 1.63 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

140%FSV Mainz 05
X24%Draw
236%Werder Bremen
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes66%
No34%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 65%U 35%
O/U 3.5O 43%U 57%
O/U 4.5O 24%U 76%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

FSV Mainz 05
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for FSV Mainz 05.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Werder Bremen
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Werder Bremen.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

FSV Mainz 0520%
Werder Bremen18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

FSV Mainz 0515%
Werder Bremen14%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

FSV Mainz 0552%
Werder Bremen48%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

FSV Mainz 05
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 19%L 60%
-0.5W 40%P 0%L 60%
0W 40%P 24%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Werder Bremen
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 24%L 40%
+0.5W 60%P 0%L 40%
+1W 60%P 19%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.71%
#22-18.43%
#31-28.03%
#42-26.86%
#51-05.49%
Combined Top 539.52%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

FSV Mainz 05 + BTTS24%
Werder Bremen + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

FSV Mainz 05 Season

Rank#5
Points10
Matches Left28

Werder Bremen Season

Rank#8
Points9
Matches Left28

FSV Mainz 05 Last 5

FC Schalke 04 0 - 1
Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 4
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 4
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3
Hamburger SV 0 - 5

Werder Bremen Last 5

SC Paderborn 07 2 - 2
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 2
FC Augsburg 3 - 2
1. FC Köln 1 - 1
RB Leipzig 3 - 1

Head-to-Head

FSV Mainz 05: 1 Draws: 1 Werder Bremen: 3
2026 Werder Bremen 0 - 2 FSV Mainz 05
2025 FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Werder Bremen
2025 Werder Bremen 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05
2024 FSV Mainz 05 1 - 2 Werder Bremen
2024 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 Werder Bremen

Form Analysis

FSV Mainz 05
W L W L W
Werder Bremen
W D W D D

FSV Mainz 05 Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.33
Goals scored4
Goals conceded7
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.33

Werder Bremen Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.33
Goals scored4
Goals conceded7
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.33

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

FSV Mainz 05
1.89
Werder Bremen
1.84

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga football match on October 24, 2026 at MEWA ARENA. Recent form is 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: WLWLW) for FSV Mainz 05 and 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses (form: WDWDD) for Werder Bremen. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 MEWA ARENA

Standings & Context

In the Bundesliga standings, FSV Mainz 05 is currently #5 with 10 points from 6 matches, while Werder Bremen is #8 with 9 points from 6. Recent head-to-head history: FSV Mainz 05 won 1, 1 were drawn and Werder Bremen won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows FSV Mainz 05 at 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per home match, versus Werder Bremen at 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.89 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.84 for Werder Bremen.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.