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Gremio
L D D D L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Atletico Paranaense
D W D W L
1X2 Atletico Paranaense 45%
O/U Over 2.5 75%
DC X2 68%
BTTS Yes 67%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Gremio 30% Draw 24% Atletico Paranaense 45%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense?

Our prediction for the Gremio–Atletico Paranaense match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Atletico Paranaense to win (45% confidence); Atletico Paranaense to win or draw (68% confidence); both teams to score: yes (67% confidence)

Gremio

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Gremio scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

Atletico Paranaense

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Atletico Paranaense scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Gremio and Atletico Paranaense average 3.40 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Wallace contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.08/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, K. Viveros contributed 4 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.63/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Atletico Paranaense records a mean of 6.79/10 versus 6.49/10 for Gremio.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Mano Menezes for Gremio and Odair Hellmann for Atletico Paranaense. The latest recorded formations are Gremio in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026) and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 7 recent matches with possession and shot data, Gremio averaged 48.9% possession and 13.0 shots per match (4.3 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 6 matches, Atletico Paranaense averaged 51.2% possession and 18.2 shots (7.0 on target), a high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Gremio recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.00 points, 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. Away from home, Atletico Paranaense recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in 3 matches, averaging 1.33 points, 2.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre).

Recent results show that Gremio have a stronger record at home than away: 1 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 1.0 points per home match compared with 0.3 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.67 — 1.70 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

137%Gremio
X24%Draw
239%Atletico Paranaense
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes67%
No33%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 65%U 35%
O/U 3.5O 43%U 57%
O/U 4.5O 25%U 75%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Gremio
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Gremio.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Atletico Paranaense
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Atletico Paranaense.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Gremio18%
Atletico Paranaense19%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Gremio14%
Atletico Paranaense15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Gremio49%
Atletico Paranaense51%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Gremio
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 18%L 63%
-0.5W 37%P 0%L 63%
0W 37%P 24%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 19%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Atletico Paranaense
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 19%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 24%L 37%
+0.5W 63%P 0%L 37%
+1W 63%P 18%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.52%
#21-28.29%
#32-18.14%
#42-26.90%
#50-15.34%
Combined Top 539.19%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Gremio + BTTS23%
Atletico Paranaense + BTTS24%
Draw + BTTS20%

Gremio Season

Rank#18
Points31
Matches Left7

Atletico Paranaense Season

Rank#3
Points53
Matches Left7

Gremio Last 5

Cruzeiro 2 - 4
Internacional 1 - 1
Remo 1 - 1
Palmeiras 0 - 0
Botafogo 3 - 2

Atletico Paranaense Last 5

Palmeiras 0 - 2
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4
Atletico-MG 2 - 2
Bahia 2 - 1
Coritiba 3 - 3

Head-to-Head

Gremio: 3 Draws: 1 Atletico Paranaense: 1
2026 Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Gremio
2024 Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Gremio
2024 Gremio 2 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
2023 Gremio 1 - 2 Atletico Paranaense
2023 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 2 Gremio

Form Analysis

Gremio
L D D D L
Atletico Paranaense
L W D W D

Gremio Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.56
Goals scored25
Goals conceded21
Matches16
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.31

Atletico Paranaense Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.47
Goals scored22
Goals conceded22
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.47

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio
1.80
Atletico Paranaense
2.18

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense is a Brasileirão football match on October 29, 2026 at Arena do Grêmio. Recent form is 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (form: LDDDL) for Gremio and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: LWDWD) for Atletico Paranaense. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 29 Oct 2026
📍 Arena do Grêmio

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Gremio is currently #18 with 31 points from 31 matches, while Atletico Paranaense is #3 with 53 points from 31. Recent head-to-head history: Gremio won 3, 1 were drawn and Atletico Paranaense won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Gremio at 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per home match, versus Atletico Paranaense at 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.80 for Gremio and 2.18 for Atletico Paranaense.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.