What is the prediction for the football match between Gremio and Bahia?
Our prediction for the Gremio–Bahia match is: over 1.5 goals.
Other OPWIN picks
Gremio to win (59% confidence); Gremio to win or draw (67% confidence); both teams to score: yes (63% confidence)
Gremio
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Gremio scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.
Bahia
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Bahia scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.
How the recent evidence fits the pick
Across the available samples, Gremio and Bahia average 2.40 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.
Players to watch
Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Francis Amuzu contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.70/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Marcos Victor contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.83/10 across 4 rated appearances.
Recent squad-performance signal
Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Gremio records a mean of 6.89/10 versus 6.45/10 for Bahia.
Tactical matchup and recent shapes
The current records list Mano Menezes for Gremio and Rogério Ceni for Bahia. The latest recorded formations are Gremio in 4-1-4-1 (Nov 4, 2026) and Bahia in 5-3-2 (Oct 29, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Gremio averaged 47.7% possession and 13.2 shots per match (4.5 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 8 matches, Bahia averaged 48.9% possession and 12.8 shots (3.6 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.
Home and away performance
In 6 recent home matches, Gremio recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.33 points, 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. Away from home, Bahia recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in 4 matches, averaging 1.00 points, 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.
This Serie A fixture takes place at Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre).
Recent results show no clear home advantage for Gremio: 1.3 points per home match compared with 0.8 away, with performance varying between matches.
This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.