What is the prediction for the football match between Lecce and Genoa?
Our prediction for the Lecce–Genoa match is: over 1.5 goals.
Other OPWIN picks
Lecce to win (50% confidence); Lecce to win or draw (63% confidence); both teams to score: yes (63% confidence)
Lecce
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Lecce scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.
Genoa
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Genoa scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.
How the recent evidence fits the pick
Across the available samples, Lecce and Genoa average 2.40 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.
Players to watch
Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Tiago Gabriel contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.28/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Osmajić contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.13/10 across 5 rated appearances.
Recent squad-performance signal
Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Lecce records a mean of 6.68/10 versus 6.52/10 for Genoa.
Tactical matchup and recent shapes
The current records list E. Di Francesco for Lecce and P. Vieira for Genoa. The latest recorded formations are Lecce in 4-3-3 (Oct 18, 2026) and Genoa in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, Lecce averaged 43.4% possession and 11.8 shots per match (5.0 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 5 matches, Genoa averaged 42.4% possession and 11.8 shots (3.4 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.
Home and away performance
In 3 recent home matches, Lecce recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.00 points, 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match. Away from home, Genoa recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 points, 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.
This Serie A fixture takes place at Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce).
Recent results show no clear home advantage for Lecce: 1.0 points per home match compared with 1.0 away, with performance varying between matches.
This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.