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Leixoes

L L L D
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Chaves

L D W L L
1X2 Leixoes 40%
O/U Over 2.5 58%
DC 1X 72%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Leixoes 40% Draw 25% Chaves 35%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Leixoes and Chaves?

Our prediction for the Leixoes–Chaves match is: Leixoes to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Leixoes to win (40% confidence); over 2.5 goals (58% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The latest recorded formations are Leixoes in 4-4-2 (Nov 7, 2026) and Chaves in 4-3-3 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 4 recent matches with possession and shot data, Leixoes averaged 53.3% possession and 14.0 shots per match (4.0 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 5 matches, Chaves averaged 49.6% possession and 12.4 shots (5.6 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

This Segunda Liga fixture takes place at Estadio do Mar (Matosinhos).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Leixoes, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.65 — 1.51 Reliability 80%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

140%Leixoes
X25%Draw
235%Chaves
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Leixoes
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Leixoes.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Chaves
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Chaves.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 44%U 56%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Leixoes22%
Chaves19%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Leixoes17%
Chaves14%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Leixoes54%
Chaves46%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Leixoes
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 20%L 60%
-0.5W 40%P 0%L 60%
0W 40%P 25%L 35%
+0.5W 65%P 0%L 35%
+1W 65%P 18%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Chaves
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 18%L 65%
-0.5W 35%P 0%L 65%
0W 35%P 25%L 40%
+0.5W 60%P 0%L 40%
+1W 60%P 20%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.43%
#22-18.69%
#31-27.97%
#42-26.56%
#51-06.37%
Combined Top 541.02%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Leixoes + BTTS23%
Chaves + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Leixoes Season

Rank#12
Points11
Matches Left28

Chaves Season

Rank#17
Points8
Matches Left28

Leixoes Last 5

Felgueiras 1932 3 - 3
Sporting CP B 1 - 2
Academica 4 - 0
FC Porto B 1 - 2

Chaves Last 5

Penafiel 2 - 3
Benfica B 3 - 1
Vizela 2 - 1
Lusitânia Lourosa 1 - 1
Farense 4 - 0

Head-to-Head

Leixoes: 1 Draws: 3 Chaves: 1
2026 Chaves 1 - 2 Leixoes
2025 Leixoes 0 - 1 Chaves
2025 Leixoes 0 - 0 Chaves
2024 Chaves 0 - 0 Leixoes
2024 Chaves - Leixoes

Form Analysis

Leixoes
D L L L D
Chaves
L L W D L

Leixoes Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.60
Goals scored8
Goals conceded9
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.80

Chaves Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.60
Goals scored3
Goals conceded11
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.20

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Leixoes
1.73
Chaves
1.29

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Leixoes vs Chaves is a Football football match on November 15, 2026 at Estádio do Mar. Recent form is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: DLLLD) for Leixoes and 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: LLWDL) for Chaves. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 15 Nov 2026
📍 Estádio do Mar

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Leixoes is currently #12 with 11 points from 10 matches, while Chaves is #17 with 8 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Leixoes won 1, 3 were drawn and Chaves won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Leixoes at 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per home match, versus Chaves at 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.73 for Leixoes and 1.29 for Chaves.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.