OpWin.

Menu
Home Results Rankings
Tools
Odds Converter Kelly Calculator
Settings
Language
EN FR ES PT IT AR
Dark Mode
About Privacy
Home

Leon
D W D L
VS
AI Predicts: 3-2
Away

Toluca
L D L D
1X2 Draw 24%
O/U Over 2.5 86%
DC 1X 62%
BTTS Yes 70%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Leon 38% Draw 24% Toluca 38%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Leon and Toluca?

Our prediction for the Leon–Toluca match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

a draw (24% confidence); Leon to win or draw (62% confidence); both teams to score: yes (70% confidence)

Leon

Across the 4 most recent finished matches with available data, Leon scored an average of 1.75 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.

Toluca

Across the 4 most recent finished matches with available data, Toluca scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 2.50 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Leon and Toluca average 3.75 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, J. Alvarado contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.10/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, A. Vega contributed 2 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.24/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Toluca records a mean of 6.52/10 versus 6.34/10 for Leon.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists E. Berizzo as coach of Leon. The latest recorded formations are Leon in 4-1-4-1 (Oct 18, 2026) and Toluca in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 4 recent matches with possession and shot data, Leon averaged 55.0% possession and 11.0 shots per match (5.0 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. Across 4 matches, Toluca averaged 55.5% possession and 16.0 shots (6.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

This Liga MX fixture takes place at Estadio León (Leon).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Leon, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.86 — 1.74 Reliability 80%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

141%Leon
X23%Draw
236%Toluca
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes70%
No30%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 88%U 12%
O/U 2.5O 70%U 30%
O/U 3.5O 48%U 52%
O/U 4.5O 29%U 71%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Leon
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 88%

The model assigns 88% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Leon.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 85%U 15%
1.5O 55%U 45%
2.5O 29%U 71%
3.5O 12%U 88%
Toluca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Toluca.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 18%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Leon18%
Toluca15%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Leon14%
Toluca12%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Leon53%
Toluca47%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Leon
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 19%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 23%L 36%
+0.5W 64%P 0%L 36%
+1W 64%P 17%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Toluca
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 17%L 64%
-0.5W 36%P 0%L 64%
0W 36%P 23%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 19%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-19.48%
#22-18.21%
#31-27.67%
#42-27.14%
#53-15.10%
Combined Top 537.60%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Leon + BTTS27%
Toluca + BTTS24%
Draw + BTTS20%

Leon Season

Rank#7
Points18
Matches Left26

Toluca Season

Rank#2
Points21
Matches Left26

Leon Last 5

Club America 3 - 5
Puebla 1 - 1
FC Juarez 2 - 1
Club Queretaro 1 - 1

Toluca Last 5

Atletico San Luis 1 - 1
Tigres UANL 3 - 2
Cruz Azul 3 - 3
Santos Laguna 2 - 3

Head-to-Head

Leon: 0 Draws: 2 Toluca: 3
2026 Toluca 2 - 0 Leon
2026 Toluca 4 - 1 Leon
2025 Leon 2 - 4 Toluca
2025 Leon 3 - 3 Toluca
2024 Toluca 2 - 2 Leon

Form Analysis

Leon
L D W D W
Toluca
D L D L W

Leon Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored12
Goals conceded9
Matches6
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.50

Toluca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.67
Goals scored10
Goals conceded7
Matches6
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.17

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Leon
2.75
Toluca
2.61

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Leon vs Toluca is a Football football match on October 24, 2026 at Estadio León (Nou Camp). Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: LDWDW) for Leon and 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (form: DLDLW) for Toluca. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 Estadio León (Nou Camp)

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Leon is currently #7 with 18 points from 12 matches, while Toluca is #2 with 21 points from 12. Recent head-to-head history: Leon won 0, 2 were drawn and Toluca won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Leon at 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per home match, versus Toluca at 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.75 for Leon and 2.61 for Toluca.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.