OpWin.

Menu
Home Results Rankings Our data
Tools
Odds Converter Kelly Calculator
Settings
Language
EN FR ES PT IT AR
Dark Mode
About Us Contact Privacy
Home

Maritimo
L D L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Nacional
L L W L W
1X2 Nacional 44%
O/U Over 1.5 76%
DC X2 72%
BTTS Yes 61%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Maritimo 32% Draw 24% Nacional 44%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Maritimo and Nacional?

Our prediction for the Maritimo–Nacional match is: over 1.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Nacional to win (44% confidence); Nacional to win or draw (72% confidence); both teams to score: yes (61% confidence)

Maritimo

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Maritimo scored an average of 0.60 goals and conceded 2.60 per match.

Nacional

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Nacional scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Romain Correia contributed 1 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.85/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Miguel Baeza contributed 1 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.56/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Nacional records a mean of 6.40/10 versus 6.11/10 for Maritimo.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists A. Franco as coach of Maritimo. The latest recorded formations are Maritimo in 3-4-3 (Nov 1, 2026) and Nacional in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Maritimo averaged 46.5% possession and 9.8 shots per match (3.0 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 7 matches, Nacional averaged 36.6% possession and 7.6 shots (2.6 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 3 recent home matches, Maritimo recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, averaging 0.00 points, 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match. Away from home, Nacional recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 points, 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.45 — 1.54 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

135%Maritimo
X26%Draw
239%Nacional
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes61%
No39%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 57%U 43%
O/U 3.5O 35%U 65%
O/U 4.5O 18%U 82%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Maritimo
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Maritimo.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%
Nacional
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Nacional.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Maritimo21%
Nacional23%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Maritimo16%
Nacional18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Maritimo48%
Nacional52%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Maritimo
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 18%L 65%
-0.5W 35%P 0%L 65%
0W 35%P 26%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 20%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Nacional
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 20%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 26%L 35%
+0.5W 65%P 0%L 35%
+1W 65%P 18%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.10%
#21-28.61%
#32-18.14%
#40-17.09%
#51-06.67%
Combined Top 542.61%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Maritimo + BTTS19%
Nacional + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

Maritimo Season

Rank#15
Points8
Matches Left24

Nacional Season

Rank#13
Points10
Matches Left23

Maritimo Last 5

Santa Clara 0 - 2
Vitória SC 5 - 0
FC Porto 1 - 2
GIL Vicente 1 - 1
Moreirense 3 - 1

Nacional Last 5

Academico Viseu 1 - 0
Arouca 1 - 0
SC Braga 1 - 0
Rio Ave 3 - 2
Famalicao 0 - 4

Head-to-Head

Maritimo: 5 Draws: 0 Nacional: 0
2025 Maritimo 3 - 0 Nacional
2024 Maritimo 2 - 0 Nacional
2024 Maritimo 3 - 1 Nacional
2023 Nacional 1 - 2 Maritimo
2022 Maritimo 1 - 0 Nacional

Form Analysis

Maritimo
L L L D L
Nacional
W L W L L

Maritimo Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.80
Goals scored4
Goals conceded9
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.80

Nacional Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.80
Goals scored4
Goals conceded9
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.80

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Maritimo
1.15
Nacional
1.54

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Maritimo vs Nacional is a Primeira Liga football match on November 27, 2026 at Estádio do Marítimo. Recent form is 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses (form: LLLDL) for Maritimo and 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: WLWLL) for Nacional. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 27 Nov 2026
📍 Estádio do Marítimo

Standings & Context

In the Primeira Liga standings, Maritimo is currently #15 with 8 points from 10 matches, while Nacional is #13 with 10 points from 11. Recent head-to-head history: Maritimo won 5, 0 were drawn and Nacional won 0 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Maritimo at 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per home match, versus Nacional at 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.15 for Maritimo and 1.54 for Nacional.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.