What is the prediction for the football match between Millwall and Derby?
Our prediction for the Millwall–Derby match is: Millwall to win or draw.
Other OPWIN picks
Millwall to win (40% confidence); over 2.5 goals (61% confidence); both teams to score: yes (63% confidence)
Millwall
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Millwall scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.
Derby
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Derby scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.
How the recent evidence fits the pick
Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Millwall scored 1.40 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Derby scored 0.80 and conceded 1.80 across 5.
Players to watch
Across 5 recent recorded appearances, C. Neghli contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.97/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Fuseini contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.79/10 across 5 rated appearances.
Tactical matchup and recent shapes
The current records list A. Neil for Millwall and J. Eustace for Derby. The latest recorded formations are Millwall in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026) and Derby in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Millwall averaged 49.0% possession and 13.8 shots per match (4.3 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 6 matches, Derby averaged 54.8% possession and 14.8 shots (4.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.
This Championship fixture takes place at The Den (London).
Recent results show no clear home advantage for Millwall: 0.7 points per home match compared with 1.3 away, with performance varying between matches.
This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.