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Monza
W L L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Fiorentina
L L D W D
1X2 Fiorentina 46%
O/U Over 2.5 71%
DC X2 69%
BTTS Yes 66%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Monza 30% Draw 24% Fiorentina 46%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Monza and Fiorentina?

Our prediction for the Monza–Fiorentina match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Fiorentina to win (46% confidence); Fiorentina to win or draw (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (66% confidence)

Monza

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Monza scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 2.00 per match.

Fiorentina

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Fiorentina scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 2.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Monza and Fiorentina average 3.60 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Gustavo Varela contributed 5 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.68/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, A. Njie contributed 3 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.17/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Fiorentina records a mean of 6.72/10 versus 6.23/10 for Monza.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list A. Nesta for Monza and F. Grosso for Fiorentina. The latest recorded formations are Monza in 3-5-2 (Nov 8, 2026) and Fiorentina in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 9 recent matches with possession and shot data, Monza averaged 44.7% possession and 13.6 shots per match (5.8 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 9 matches, Fiorentina averaged 45.4% possession and 16.9 shots (5.3 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Monza recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, averaging 1.20 points, 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match. Away from home, Fiorentina recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 4 matches, averaging 1.50 points, 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.63 — 1.66 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

137%Monza
X25%Draw
238%Fiorentina
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes66%
No34%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 64%U 36%
O/U 3.5O 42%U 58%
O/U 4.5O 23%U 77%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Monza
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Monza.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Fiorentina
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Fiorentina.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Monza19%
Fiorentina20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Monza15%
Fiorentina15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Monza49%
Fiorentina51%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Monza
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 18%L 63%
-0.5W 37%P 0%L 63%
0W 37%P 25%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 19%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Fiorentina
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 19%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 25%L 37%
+0.5W 63%P 0%L 37%
+1W 63%P 18%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.94%
#21-28.35%
#32-18.20%
#42-26.80%
#50-15.56%
Combined Top 539.85%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Monza + BTTS22%
Fiorentina + BTTS23%
Draw + BTTS20%

Monza Season

Rank#18
Points7
Matches Left27

Fiorentina Season

Rank#15
Points9
Matches Left27

Monza Last 5

Atalanta 0 - 1
Bologna 2 - 1
Napoli 1 - 4
Torino 3 - 2
Cagliari 4 - 0

Fiorentina Last 5

Juventus 2 - 2
Sassuolo 2 - 4
Atalanta 2 - 2
Inter 2 - 1
Como 1 - 3

Head-to-Head

Monza: 2 Draws: 1 Fiorentina: 2
2025 Monza 2 - 1 Fiorentina
2024 Fiorentina 2 - 2 Monza
2024 Fiorentina 2 - 1 Monza
2023 Monza 0 - 1 Fiorentina
2023 Monza 3 - 2 Fiorentina

Form Analysis

Monza
L L L L W
Fiorentina
D W D L L

Monza Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.80
Goals scored9
Goals conceded9
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.80

Fiorentina Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored10
Goals conceded12
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.40

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Monza
1.67
Fiorentina
2.05

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Monza vs Fiorentina is a Serie A football match on November 23, 2026 at U-Power Stadium. Recent form is 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses (form: LLLLW) for Monza and 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (form: DWDLL) for Fiorentina. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 23 Nov 2026
📍 U-Power Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Serie A standings, Monza is currently #18 with 7 points from 11 matches, while Fiorentina is #15 with 9 points from 11. Recent head-to-head history: Monza won 2, 1 were drawn and Fiorentina won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Monza at 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per home match, versus Fiorentina at 2.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.67 for Monza and 2.05 for Fiorentina.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.