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Napoli
D W L L W
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

AS Roma
D D L W W
1X2 AS Roma 52%
O/U Over 1.5 76%
DC X2 75%
BTTS Yes 61%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Napoli 26% Draw 22% AS Roma 52%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Napoli and AS Roma?

Our prediction for the Napoli–AS Roma match is: over 1.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

AS Roma to win (52% confidence); AS Roma to win or draw (75% confidence); both teams to score: yes (61% confidence)

Napoli

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Napoli scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

AS Roma

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, AS Roma scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Napoli and AS Roma average 4.00 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, K. De Bruyne contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.14/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, D. Malen contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.34/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, AS Roma records a mean of 6.98/10 versus 6.55/10 for Napoli.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list A. Conte for Napoli and G. Gasperini for AS Roma. The latest recorded formations are Napoli in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 20, 2026) and AS Roma in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 20, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, Napoli averaged 51.0% possession and 15.4 shots per match (5.8 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 8 matches, AS Roma averaged 56.0% possession and 17.9 shots (5.8 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Napoli recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.80 points, 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match. Away from home, AS Roma recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 4 matches, averaging 2.00 points, 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples).

Recent results show that Napoli have a stronger record at home than away: 3 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 1.8 points per home match compared with 0.3 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.44 — 1.57 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

134%Napoli
X26%Draw
240%AS Roma
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes61%
No39%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 58%U 42%
O/U 3.5O 36%U 64%
O/U 4.5O 19%U 81%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Napoli
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Napoli.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 76%U 24%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%
AS Roma
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for AS Roma.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 8%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Napoli21%
AS Roma24%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Napoli15%
AS Roma18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Napoli46%
AS Roma54%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Napoli
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 18%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 26%L 40%
+0.5W 60%P 0%L 40%
+1W 60%P 20%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
AS Roma
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 20%L 60%
-0.5W 40%P 0%L 60%
0W 40%P 26%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 18%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.91%
#21-28.73%
#32-18.00%
#40-17.11%
#51-06.47%
Combined Top 542.22%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Napoli + BTTS19%
AS Roma + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

Napoli Season

Rank#9
Points10
Matches Left31

AS Roma Season

Rank#3
Points17
Matches Left31

Napoli Last 5

Bodo/Glimt 4 - 3
Venezia 1 - 0
Villarreal 3 - 1
Frosinone 3 - 0
Fiorentina 1 - 1

AS Roma Last 5

Slovan Bratislava 4 - 0
Genoa 2 - 0
Real Madrid 3 - 4
Como 0 - 0
Inter 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

Napoli: 0 Draws: 3 AS Roma: 2
2026 Napoli 2 - 2 AS Roma
2025 AS Roma 0 - 1 Napoli
2025 AS Roma 1 - 1 Napoli
2024 Napoli 1 - 0 AS Roma
2024 Napoli 2 - 2 AS Roma

Form Analysis

Napoli
L W D W L
AS Roma
W D D W W

Napoli Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.67
Goals scored5
Goals conceded2
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.67

AS Roma Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored6
Goals conceded0
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Napoli
1.09
AS Roma
1.64

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Napoli vs AS Roma is a Serie A football match on October 24, 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Recent form is 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LWDWL) for Napoli and 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: WDDWW) for AS Roma. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Standings & Context

In the Serie A standings, Napoli is currently #9 with 10 points from 7 matches, while AS Roma is #3 with 17 points from 7. Recent head-to-head history: Napoli won 0, 3 were drawn and AS Roma won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Napoli at 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per home match, versus AS Roma at 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.09 for Napoli and 1.64 for AS Roma.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.