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NEC Nijmegen
L D D D D
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Groningen
D D W W L
1X2 Groningen 41%
O/U Over 2.5 67%
DC X2 85%
BTTS Yes 63%
OpWin AI Probabilities
NEC Nijmegen 37% Draw 22% Groningen 41%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?

Our prediction for the NEC Nijmegen–Groningen match is: Groningen to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Groningen to win (41% confidence); over 2.5 goals (67% confidence); both teams to score: yes (63% confidence)

NEC Nijmegen

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, NEC Nijmegen scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

Groningen

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Groningen scored an average of 2.60 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): NEC Nijmegen scored 1.00 and conceded 1.60 per match across 5 covered games; Groningen scored 2.60 and conceded 1.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, T. Chery contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.38/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, T. van Bergen contributed 4 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.21/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list R. de Groot for NEC Nijmegen and D. Lukkien for Groningen. The latest recorded formations are NEC Nijmegen in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 18, 2026) and Groningen in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 7 recent matches with possession and shot data, NEC Nijmegen averaged 57.7% possession and 14.3 shots per match (4.1 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 5 matches, Groningen averaged 49.0% possession and 14.4 shots (5.4 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

This Eredivisie fixture takes place at Goffertstadion (Nijmegen).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for NEC Nijmegen: 0.8 points per home match compared with 1.0 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.46 — 1.70 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

132%NEC Nijmegen
X25%Draw
243%Groningen
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes63%
No37%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

NEC Nijmegen
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for NEC Nijmegen.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 43%U 57%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%
Groningen
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Groningen.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

NEC Nijmegen18%
Groningen23%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

NEC Nijmegen13%
Groningen18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

NEC Nijmegen43%
Groningen57%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

NEC Nijmegen
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 17%L 68%
-0.5W 32%P 0%L 68%
0W 32%P 25%L 43%
+0.5W 57%P 0%L 43%
+1W 57%P 20%L 23%
+1.5W 77%P 0%L 23%
Groningen
-1.5W 23%P 0%L 77%
-1W 23%P 20%L 57%
-0.5W 43%P 0%L 57%
0W 43%P 25%L 32%
+0.5W 68%P 0%L 32%
+1W 68%P 17%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.41%
#21-28.93%
#32-17.67%
#40-16.58%
#52-26.51%
Combined Top 541.10%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

NEC Nijmegen + BTTS19%
Groningen + BTTS24%
Draw + BTTS20%

NEC Nijmegen Season

Rank#12
Points10
Matches Left29

Groningen Season

Rank#7
Points14
Matches Left29

NEC Nijmegen Last 5

Fortuna Sittard 2 - 2
Levski Sofia 1 - 1
Ajax 1 - 1
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 1
Cambuur 3 - 0

Groningen Last 5

Ajax 2 - 5
Excelsior 1 - 5
PEC Zwolle 3 - 0
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 1
Twente 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

NEC Nijmegen: 0 Draws: 0 Groningen: 5
2026 Groningen 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen
2025 NEC Nijmegen 2 - 0 Groningen
2025 Groningen 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen
2025 Groningen 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen
2024 NEC Nijmegen 6 - 0 Groningen

Form Analysis

NEC Nijmegen
D D D L D
Groningen
L W W D D

NEC Nijmegen Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.40
Goals scored7
Goals conceded10
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

Groningen Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.75
Goals scored11
Goals conceded8
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

NEC Nijmegen
1.11
Groningen
2.38

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Eredivisie football match on October 25, 2026 at Goffertstadion. Recent form is 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses (form: DDDLD) for NEC Nijmegen and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: LWWDD) for Groningen. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 25 Oct 2026
📍 Goffertstadion

Standings & Context

In the Eredivisie standings, NEC Nijmegen is currently #12 with 10 points from 9 matches, while Groningen is #7 with 14 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: NEC Nijmegen won 0, 0 were drawn and Groningen won 5 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows NEC Nijmegen at 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per home match, versus Groningen at 2.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.11 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.38 for Groningen.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.