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Palmeiras
W W W D W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Flamengo
W W W W W
1X2 Palmeiras 50%
O/U Over 2.5 77%
DC 1X 67%
BTTS Yes 68%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Palmeiras 50% Draw 20% Flamengo 30%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Palmeiras and Flamengo?

Our prediction for the Palmeiras–Flamengo match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Palmeiras to win (50% confidence); Palmeiras to win or draw (67% confidence); both teams to score: yes (68% confidence)

Palmeiras

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Palmeiras scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.40 per match.

Flamengo

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Flamengo scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Palmeiras and Flamengo average 5.60 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, José Manuel López contributed 1 goal(s) and 3 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.95/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Samuel Lino contributed 3 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.75/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Abel Ferreira for Palmeiras and Marcelo Salles for Flamengo. The latest recorded formations are Palmeiras in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 5, 2026) and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 4, 2026). Across 9 recent matches with possession and shot data, Palmeiras averaged 54.0% possession and 19.6 shots per match (7.2 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Flamengo averaged 58.2% possession and 19.2 shots (7.9 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, averaging 3.00 points, 3.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per match. Away from home, Flamengo recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in 4 matches, averaging 2.50 points, 2.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos).

Recent results show that Palmeiras have a stronger record at home than away: 5 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 3.0 points per home match compared with 1.4 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.78 — 1.64 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

141%Palmeiras
X24%Draw
235%Flamengo
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes68%
No32%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 86%U 14%
O/U 2.5O 66%U 34%
O/U 3.5O 45%U 55%
O/U 4.5O 26%U 74%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Palmeiras
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 89%

The model assigns 89% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Palmeiras.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 17%
1.5O 53%U 47%
2.5O 26%U 74%
3.5O 11%U 89%
Flamengo
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Flamengo.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Palmeiras19%
Flamengo17%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Palmeiras16%
Flamengo13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Palmeiras54%
Flamengo46%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Palmeiras
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 19%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 24%L 35%
+0.5W 65%P 0%L 35%
+1W 65%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Flamengo
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 65%
-0.5W 35%P 0%L 65%
0W 35%P 24%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 19%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.25%
#22-18.48%
#31-27.81%
#42-26.96%
#51-05.29%
Combined Top 538.79%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Palmeiras + BTTS25%
Flamengo + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

Palmeiras Season

Rank#2
Points73
Matches Left4

Flamengo Season

Rank#1
Points76
Matches Left4

Palmeiras Last 5

Remo 6 - 1
Santos 0 - 0
RB Bragantino 2 - 0
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2
Corinthians 4 - 1

Flamengo Last 5

Gremio 3 - 1
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 4
Atletico-MG 3 - 2
Bahia 0 - 3
Fluminense 1 - 0

Head-to-Head

Palmeiras: 1 Draws: 1 Flamengo: 3
2026 Flamengo 0 - 3 Palmeiras
2025 Palmeiras 0 - 1 Flamengo
2025 Flamengo 3 - 2 Palmeiras
2025 Palmeiras 0 - 2 Flamengo
2024 Flamengo 1 - 1 Palmeiras

Form Analysis

Palmeiras
W D W W W
Flamengo
W W W W W

Palmeiras Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.12
Goals scored36
Goals conceded11
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.65

Flamengo Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.12
Goals scored36
Goals conceded16
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.94

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Palmeiras
2.27
Flamengo
1.90

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Palmeiras vs Flamengo is a Brasileirão football match on November 21, 2026 at Allianz Parque. Recent form is 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WDWWW) for Palmeiras and 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWWW) for Flamengo. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Allianz Parque

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Palmeiras is currently #2 with 73 points from 34 matches, while Flamengo is #1 with 76 points from 34. Recent head-to-head history: Palmeiras won 1, 1 were drawn and Flamengo won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Palmeiras at 2.12 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per home match, versus Flamengo at 2.12 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.27 for Palmeiras and 1.90 for Flamengo.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.