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Penafiel
L W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Lusitânia Lourosa
D D D L
1X2 Penafiel 40%
O/U Under 3.5 80%
DC 1X 75%
BTTS Yes 60%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Penafiel 40% Draw 26% Lusitânia Lourosa 34%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa?

Our prediction for the Penafiel–Lusitânia Lourosa match is: under 3.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Penafiel to win (40% confidence); Penafiel to win or draw (75% confidence); both teams to score: yes (60% confidence)

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Hélder Cristóvão for Penafiel and Pedro Miguel for Lusitânia Lourosa. The latest recorded formations are Penafiel in 3-4-3 (Nov 7, 2026) and Lusitânia Lourosa in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 4 recent matches with possession and shot data, Penafiel averaged 50.8% possession and 16.3 shots per match (6.5 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 4 matches, Lusitânia Lourosa averaged 55.3% possession and 12.3 shots (4.0 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

This Segunda Liga fixture takes place at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Penafiel, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.54 — 1.39 Reliability 80%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

140%Penafiel
X26%Draw
234%Lusitânia Lourosa
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes60%
No40%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 80%U 20%
O/U 2.5O 56%U 44%
O/U 3.5O 34%U 66%
O/U 4.5O 17%U 83%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Penafiel
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Penafiel.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Lusitânia Lourosa
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Lusitânia Lourosa.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 75%U 25%
1.5O 40%U 60%
2.5O 16%U 84%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Penafiel25%
Lusitânia Lourosa21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Penafiel19%
Lusitânia Lourosa15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Penafiel55%
Lusitânia Lourosa45%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Penafiel
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 20%L 60%
-0.5W 40%P 0%L 60%
0W 40%P 26%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 18%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Lusitânia Lourosa
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 18%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 26%L 40%
+0.5W 60%P 0%L 40%
+1W 60%P 20%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.30%
#22-18.78%
#31-27.92%
#41-07.55%
#50-16.74%
Combined Top 543.29%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Penafiel + BTTS21%
Lusitânia Lourosa + BTTS18%
Draw + BTTS20%

Penafiel Season

Rank#1
Points22
Matches Left28

Lusitânia Lourosa Season

Rank#4
Points19
Matches Left28

Penafiel Last 5

Chaves 2 - 3
Feirense 1 - 0
Farense 1 - 4
AVS 1 - 2

Lusitânia Lourosa Last 5

Feirense 1 - 0
Farense 1 - 1
Felgueiras 1932 2 - 2
Chaves 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Penafiel: 1 Draws: 1 Lusitânia Lourosa: 0
2026 Penafiel 2 - 0 Lusitânia Lourosa
2025 Lusitânia Lourosa 0 - 0 Penafiel

Form Analysis

Penafiel
W W W L W
Lusitânia Lourosa
L D D D W

Penafiel Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.60
Goals scored8
Goals conceded4
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.80

Lusitânia Lourosa Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.40
Goals scored7
Goals conceded4
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.80

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Penafiel
1.37
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.93

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa is a Football football match on November 15, 2026 at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril. Recent form is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLW) for Penafiel and 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses (form: LDDDW) for Lusitânia Lourosa. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 15 Nov 2026
📍 Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Penafiel is currently #1 with 22 points from 10 matches, while Lusitânia Lourosa is #4 with 19 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Penafiel won 1, 1 were drawn and Lusitânia Lourosa won 0 across the last 2 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Penafiel at 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per home match, versus Lusitânia Lourosa at 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.37 for Penafiel and 0.93 for Lusitânia Lourosa.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.