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Rayo Vallecano
D D L W L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Valencia
D D L W L
1X2 Rayo Vallecano 55%
O/U Over 1.5 75%
DC 1X 71%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Rayo Vallecano 55% Draw 20% Valencia 25%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia?

Our prediction for the Rayo Vallecano–Valencia match is: over 1.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Rayo Vallecano to win (55% confidence); Rayo Vallecano to win or draw (71% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Rayo Vallecano

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Valencia

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Valencia scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Rayo Vallecano and Valencia average 1.80 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Jorge de Frutos contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.06/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 2 recent recorded appearances, U. Sadiq contributed 1 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.83/10 across 2 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Rayo Vallecano records a mean of 6.56/10 versus 6.28/10 for Valencia.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists Iñigo Pérez as coach of Rayo Vallecano. The latest recorded formations are Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026) and Valencia in 5-3-2 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, Rayo Vallecano averaged 54.6% possession and 16.6 shots per match (5.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Valencia averaged 41.7% possession and 9.1 shots (2.8 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Rayo Vallecano recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.25 points, 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match. Away from home, Valencia recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.40 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This La Liga fixture takes place at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid).

Recent results show that Rayo Vallecano have a stronger record at home than away: 3 wins in 4 home matches, averaging 2.3 points per home match compared with 0.4 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.60 — 1.45 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

140%Rayo Vallecano
X26%Draw
234%Valencia
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 58%U 42%
O/U 3.5O 36%U 64%
O/U 4.5O 19%U 81%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Rayo Vallecano
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Rayo Vallecano.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Valencia
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Valencia.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Rayo Vallecano23%
Valencia20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Rayo Vallecano18%
Valencia15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Rayo Vallecano54%
Valencia46%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Rayo Vallecano
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 20%L 60%
-0.5W 40%P 0%L 60%
0W 40%P 26%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 18%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Valencia
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 18%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 26%L 40%
+0.5W 60%P 0%L 40%
+1W 60%P 20%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.93%
#22-18.77%
#31-27.94%
#41-06.91%
#52-26.34%
Combined Top 541.89%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Rayo Vallecano + BTTS22%
Valencia + BTTS19%
Draw + BTTS20%

Rayo Vallecano Season

Rank#14
Points12
Matches Left27

Valencia Season

Rank#19
Points9
Matches Left26

Rayo Vallecano Last 5

Real Sociedad 1 - 0
Celta Vigo 3 - 0
Elche 0 - 3
Getafe 1 - 1
Osasuna 1 - 1

Valencia Last 5

Real Madrid 0 - 3
Elche 0 - 1
Villarreal 1 - 2
Athletic Club 0 - 0
Racing Santander 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

Rayo Vallecano: 1 Draws: 4 Valencia: 0
2026 Valencia 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
2025 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Valencia
2025 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Valencia
2024 Valencia 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
2024 Valencia 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano

Form Analysis

Rayo Vallecano
L W L D D
Valencia
L W L D D

Rayo Vallecano Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.80
Goals scored9
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

Valencia Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored5
Goals conceded6
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.20

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano
1.47
Valencia
1.18

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is a La Liga football match on November 21, 2026 at El Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas. Recent form is 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (form: LWLDD) for Rayo Vallecano and 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (form: LWLDD) for Valencia. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 El Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas

Standings & Context

In the La Liga standings, Rayo Vallecano is currently #14 with 12 points from 11 matches, while Valencia is #19 with 9 points from 12. Recent head-to-head history: Rayo Vallecano won 1, 4 were drawn and Valencia won 0 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Rayo Vallecano at 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per home match, versus Valencia at 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.47 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.18 for Valencia.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.