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Santos
W W D L W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Bahia
W L L W L
1X2 Santos 48%
O/U Over 2.5 60%
DC 1X 74%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Santos 48% Draw 25% Bahia 28%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Santos and Bahia?

Our prediction for the Santos–Bahia match is: Santos to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Santos to win (48% confidence); over 2.5 goals (60% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Santos

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Santos scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

Bahia

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Bahia scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Santos scored 1.80 and conceded 1.40 per match across 5 covered games; Bahia scored 0.80 and conceded 1.40 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Gabriel Barbosa contributed 5 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.93/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Luciano Juba contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.93/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list J. Vojvoda for Santos and Rogério Ceni for Bahia. The latest recorded formations are Santos in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 18, 2026) and Bahia in 5-3-2 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 7 recent matches with possession and shot data, Santos averaged 49.0% possession and 14.1 shots per match (4.6 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 6 matches, Bahia averaged 50.0% possession and 12.2 shots (3.8 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Santos, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.70 — 1.48 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

142%Santos
X25%Draw
233%Bahia
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 62%U 38%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Santos
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Santos.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Bahia
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Bahia.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 44%U 56%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Santos23%
Bahia18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Santos18%
Bahia13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Santos56%
Bahia44%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Santos
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 20%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 25%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 17%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Bahia
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 17%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 25%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 20%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.39%
#22-18.86%
#31-27.72%
#42-26.58%
#51-06.31%
Combined Top 540.86%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Santos + BTTS24%
Bahia + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Santos Season

Rank#8
Points45
Matches Left7

Bahia Season

Rank#7
Points49
Matches Left7

Santos Last 5

Fluminense 1 - 2
Atletico-MG 2 - 1
Flamengo 2 - 2
Sao Paulo 1 - 2
Remo 1 - 2

Bahia Last 5

Flamengo 0 - 3
Mirassol 1 - 0
Palmeiras 1 - 0
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1
Remo 2 - 1

Head-to-Head

Santos: 1 Draws: 3 Bahia: 1
2026 Bahia 2 - 2 Santos
2025 Bahia 2 - 0 Santos
2025 Santos 2 - 2 Bahia
2023 Bahia 1 - 2 Santos
2023 Bahia 1 - 1 Santos

Form Analysis

Santos
W W D L W
Bahia
W L L W L

Santos Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored4
Goals conceded3
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.50

Bahia Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.33
Goals scored4
Goals conceded5
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.67

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Santos
1.83
Bahia
1.28

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Santos vs Bahia is a Brasileirão football match on October 24, 2026 at Vila Belmiro. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses (form: WWDLW) for Santos and 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: WLLWL) for Bahia. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 Vila Belmiro

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Santos is currently #8 with 45 points from 31 matches, while Bahia is #7 with 49 points from 31. Recent head-to-head history: Santos won 1, 3 were drawn and Bahia won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Santos at 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per home match, versus Bahia at 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.83 for Santos and 1.28 for Bahia.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.