What is the prediction for the football match between Santos and Gremio?
Our prediction for the Santos–Gremio match is: under 3.5 goals.
Other OPWIN picks
Santos to win (41% confidence); Santos to win or draw (73% confidence); both teams to score: yes (61% confidence)
Santos
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Santos scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.
Gremio
Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Gremio scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.
How the recent evidence fits the pick
Across the available samples, Santos and Gremio average 2.40 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace is consistent with Under 3.5.
Players to watch
Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Gabriel Barbosa contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.16/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Francis Amuzu contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.70/10 across 5 rated appearances.
Recent squad-performance signal
Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Gremio records a mean of 6.89/10 versus 6.67/10 for Santos.
Tactical matchup and recent shapes
The current records list J. Vojvoda for Santos and Mano Menezes for Gremio. The latest recorded formations are Santos in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 2, 2026) and Gremio in 4-1-4-1 (Nov 4, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Santos averaged 51.5% possession and 15.4 shots per match (5.2 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Gremio averaged 47.7% possession and 13.2 shots (4.5 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.
Home and away performance
In 4 recent home matches, Santos recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, averaging 1.50 points, 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Away from home, Gremio recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in 5 matches, averaging 0.80 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.
This Serie A fixture takes place at Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos).
Santos's recent home record is weaker than its away record: 0 defeats in 4 home matches, averaging 1.5 points per home match compared with 2.1 away.
This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.