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Sheffield Utd
L L W L W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-0
Away

Derby
L D D L L
1X2 Sheffield Utd 52%
O/U Over 1.5 75%
DC 1X 90%
BTTS Yes 60%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Sheffield Utd 52% Draw 27% Derby 21%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Sheffield Utd and Derby?

Our prediction for the Sheffield Utd–Derby match is: Sheffield Utd to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Sheffield Utd to win (52% confidence); over 1.5 goals (75% confidence); both teams to score: yes (60% confidence)

Sheffield Utd

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sheffield Utd scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Derby

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Derby scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Sheffield Utd scored 1.40 and conceded 1.20 per match across 5 covered games; Derby scored 0.80 and conceded 1.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, K. Phillips contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.78/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Fuseini contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.79/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Sheffield Utd records a mean of 6.70/10 versus 6.45/10 for Derby.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list C. Wilder for Sheffield Utd and J. Eustace for Derby. The latest recorded formations are Sheffield Utd in 4-4-2 (Oct 17, 2026) and Derby in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 6 recent matches with possession and shot data, Sheffield Utd averaged 41.3% possession and 9.7 shots per match (3.3 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 6 matches, Derby averaged 54.8% possession and 14.8 shots (4.3 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

This Championship fixture takes place at Bramall Lane (Sheffield).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Sheffield Utd, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.69 — 1.29 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

146%Sheffield Utd
X25%Draw
229%Derby
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes60%
No40%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 80%U 20%
O/U 2.5O 57%U 43%
O/U 3.5O 35%U 65%
O/U 4.5O 18%U 82%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Sheffield Utd
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sheffield Utd.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Derby
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 96%

The model assigns 96% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Derby.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 86%

A different goal line with 86% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 73%U 27%
1.5O 37%U 63%
2.5O 14%U 86%
3.5O 4%U 96%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Sheffield Utd27%
Derby18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Sheffield Utd22%
Derby13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Sheffield Utd62%
Derby38%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Sheffield Utd
-1.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
-1W 25%P 21%L 54%
-0.5W 46%P 0%L 54%
0W 46%P 25%L 29%
+0.5W 71%P 0%L 29%
+1W 71%P 16%L 12%
+1.5W 88%P 0%L 12%
Derby
-1.5W 12%P 0%L 88%
-1W 12%P 16%L 71%
-0.5W 29%P 0%L 71%
0W 29%P 25%L 46%
+0.5W 54%P 0%L 46%
+1W 54%P 21%L 25%
+1.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.94%
#22-19.33%
#31-07.95%
#42-07.23%
#51-27.13%
Combined Top 543.58%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Sheffield Utd + BTTS24%
Derby + BTTS16%
Draw + BTTS20%

Sheffield Utd Season

Rank#11
Points15
Matches Left27

Derby Season

Rank#23
Points6
Matches Left27

Sheffield Utd Last 5

Bristol City 0 - 1
Portsmouth 3 - 2
Lincoln 3 - 0
Stoke City 2 - 1
Wolves 0 - 1

Derby Last 5

Stoke City 0 - 1
QPR 4 - 1
Wrexham 1 - 1
Burnley 1 - 1
Birmingham 1 - 2

Head-to-Head

Sheffield Utd: 4 Draws: 0 Derby: 1
2026 Derby 1 - 2 Sheffield Utd
2025 Sheffield Utd 1 - 3 Derby
2025 Derby 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd
2024 Sheffield Utd 1 - 0 Derby
2023 Derby 1 - 3 Sheffield Utd

Form Analysis

Sheffield Utd
W L W L L
Derby
L L D D L

Sheffield Utd Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.40
Goals scored7
Goals conceded6
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.20

Derby Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored5
Goals conceded10
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sheffield Utd
2.05
Derby
0.65

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Sheffield Utd vs Derby is a Football football match on October 24, 2026 at Bramall Lane. Recent form is 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: WLWLL) for Sheffield Utd and 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: LLDDL) for Derby. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 Bramall Lane

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Sheffield Utd is currently #11 with 15 points from 11 matches, while Derby is #23 with 6 points from 11. Recent head-to-head history: Sheffield Utd won 4, 0 were drawn and Derby won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Sheffield Utd at 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per home match, versus Derby at 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.05 for Sheffield Utd and 0.65 for Derby.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.