OpWin.

VS
AI Predicts: 1-3
Away

Ajax

W W D D W
1X2 Ajax 55%
O/U Over 2.5 79%
DC X2 89%
BTTS Yes 67%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Sparta Rotterdam 24% Draw 21% Ajax 55%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax?

Our prediction for the Sparta Rotterdam–Ajax match is: Ajax to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Ajax to win (55% confidence); over 2.5 goals (79% confidence); both teams to score: yes (67% confidence)

Sparta Rotterdam

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sparta Rotterdam scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 3.00 per match.

Ajax

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Ajax scored an average of 3.60 goals and conceded 1.40 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Sparta Rotterdam scored 1.80 and conceded 3.00 per match across 5 covered games; Ajax scored 3.60 and conceded 1.40 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Zonneveld contributed 4 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.42/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Brandt contributed 5 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 8.06/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Ajax records a mean of 6.85/10 versus 6.49/10 for Sparta Rotterdam.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list M. Steijn for Sparta Rotterdam and J. Heitinga for Ajax. The latest recorded formations are Sparta Rotterdam in 5-4-1 (Oct 17, 2026) and Ajax in 4-3-3 (Oct 18, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, Sparta Rotterdam averaged 42.6% possession and 16.4 shots per match (6.0 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 6 matches, Ajax averaged 62.3% possession and 24.2 shots (8.8 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

Home and away performance

In 3 recent home matches, Sparta Rotterdam recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses, averaging 1.33 points, 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match. Away from home, Ajax recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in 3 matches, averaging 3.00 points, 4.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. The away side’s recent road record compares favourably with the home side’s home record.

This Eredivisie fixture takes place at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam).

Recent results show that Sparta Rotterdam have a stronger record at home than away: 1 wins in 3 home matches, averaging 1.3 points per home match compared with 0.3 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.52 — 1.88 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

131%Sparta Rotterdam
X24%Draw
246%Ajax
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes67%
No33%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 86%U 14%
O/U 2.5O 66%U 34%
O/U 3.5O 44%U 56%
O/U 4.5O 26%U 74%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Sparta Rotterdam
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sparta Rotterdam.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Ajax
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 88%

The model assigns 88% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Ajax.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 85%U 15%
1.5O 56%U 44%
2.5O 29%U 71%
3.5O 12%U 88%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Sparta Rotterdam15%
Ajax22%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Sparta Rotterdam11%
Ajax18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Sparta Rotterdam40%
Ajax60%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Sparta Rotterdam
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 16%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 24%L 46%
+0.5W 54%P 0%L 46%
+1W 54%P 20%L 26%
+1.5W 74%P 0%L 26%
Ajax
-1.5W 26%P 0%L 74%
-1W 26%P 20%L 54%
-0.5W 46%P 0%L 54%
0W 46%P 24%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 16%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.32%
#21-28.94%
#32-17.24%
#42-26.80%
#50-25.87%
Combined Top 539.17%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Sparta Rotterdam + BTTS19%
Ajax + BTTS28%
Draw + BTTS20%

Sparta Rotterdam Season

Rank#13
Points9
Matches Left29

Ajax Season

Rank#4
Points18
Matches Left29

Sparta Rotterdam Last 5

Willem II 3 - 2
GO Ahead Eagles 3 - 3
Heerenveen 0 - 4
PSV Eindhoven 4 - 1
PEC Zwolle 2 - 2

Ajax Last 5

Groningen 2 - 5
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1
Excelsior 2 - 2
Willem II 5 - 1
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 5

Head-to-Head

Sparta Rotterdam: 0 Draws: 3 Ajax: 2
2026 Ajax 4 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam
2025 Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 3 Ajax
2025 Ajax 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam
2024 Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 Ajax
2024 Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 2 Ajax

Form Analysis

Sparta Rotterdam
D L L D W
Ajax
W W D D W

Sparta Rotterdam Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.67
Goals scored5
Goals conceded8
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.67

Ajax Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
4.67
Goals scored14
Goals conceded3
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sparta Rotterdam
1.31
Ajax
3.40

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax is a Eredivisie football match on October 25, 2026 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Recent form is 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (form: DLLDW) for Sparta Rotterdam and 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: WWDDW) for Ajax. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 25 Oct 2026
📍 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Standings & Context

In the Eredivisie standings, Sparta Rotterdam is currently #13 with 9 points from 9 matches, while Ajax is #4 with 18 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: Sparta Rotterdam won 0, 3 were drawn and Ajax won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Sparta Rotterdam at 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per home match, versus Ajax at 4.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.31 for Sparta Rotterdam and 3.40 for Ajax.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.