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Union Berlin
W D D D L
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

RB Leipzig
L W W L W
1X2 RB Leipzig 39%
O/U Over 2.5 64%
DC 1X 78%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Union Berlin 32% Draw 29% RB Leipzig 39%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Union Berlin and RB Leipzig?

Our prediction for the Union Berlin–RB Leipzig match is: Union Berlin to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

RB Leipzig to win (39% confidence); over 2.5 goals (64% confidence); both teams to score: yes (65% confidence)

Union Berlin

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Union Berlin scored an average of 0.60 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

RB Leipzig

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, RB Leipzig scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Union Berlin scored 0.60 and conceded 0.80 per match across 5 covered games; RB Leipzig scored 2.80 and conceded 1.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Haberer contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.34/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, A. Nusa contributed 2 goal(s) and 4 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.44/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, RB Leipzig records a mean of 6.74/10 versus 6.31/10 for Union Berlin.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The latest recorded formations are Union Berlin in 5-3-2 (Nov 8, 2026) and RB Leipzig in 4-5-1 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, Union Berlin averaged 40.5% possession and 9.3 shots per match (2.5 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 12 matches, RB Leipzig averaged 51.1% possession and 15.7 shots (6.1 on target), a high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Union Berlin recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, averaging 1.20 points, 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match. Away from home, RB Leipzig recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses in 6 matches, averaging 0.50 points, 1.00 goals scored and 3.17 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.72 — 1.50 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

142%Union Berlin
X25%Draw
233%RB Leipzig
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 84%U 16%
O/U 2.5O 62%U 38%
O/U 3.5O 40%U 60%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Union Berlin
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Union Berlin.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%
RB Leipzig
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for RB Leipzig.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 44%U 56%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Union Berlin22%
RB Leipzig18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Union Berlin18%
RB Leipzig13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Union Berlin56%
RB Leipzig44%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Union Berlin
-1.5W 23%P 0%L 77%
-1W 23%P 20%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 25%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 17%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
RB Leipzig
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 17%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 25%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 20%L 23%
+1.5W 77%P 0%L 23%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.16%
#22-18.85%
#31-27.70%
#42-26.63%
#51-06.22%
Combined Top 540.56%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Union Berlin + BTTS25%
RB Leipzig + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Union Berlin Season

Rank#16
Points7
Matches Left25

RB Leipzig Season

Rank#4
Points18
Matches Left25

Union Berlin Last 5

SC Freiburg 2 - 0
1. FC Köln 1 - 1
FC Augsburg 1 - 1
Borussia Dortmund 0 - 0
SV Elversberg 1 - 0

RB Leipzig Last 5

FC Augsburg 5 - 2
Manchester City 2 - 3
FC Schalke 04 0 - 2
SV Elversberg 4 - 0
Real Madrid 4 - 1

Head-to-Head

Union Berlin: 1 Draws: 2 RB Leipzig: 2
2026 RB Leipzig 3 - 1 Union Berlin
2025 Union Berlin 3 - 1 RB Leipzig
2025 Union Berlin 0 - 0 RB Leipzig
2024 RB Leipzig 0 - 0 Union Berlin
2024 RB Leipzig 2 - 0 Union Berlin

Form Analysis

Union Berlin
L D D D W
RB Leipzig
W W W L W

Union Berlin Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.20
Goals scored6
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

RB Leipzig Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored4
Goals conceded11
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.75

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Union Berlin
2.09
RB Leipzig
1.23

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig is a Bundesliga football match on November 21, 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Recent form is 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses (form: LDDDW) for Union Berlin and 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLW) for RB Leipzig. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Standings & Context

In the Bundesliga standings, Union Berlin is currently #16 with 7 points from 9 matches, while RB Leipzig is #4 with 18 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: Union Berlin won 1, 2 were drawn and RB Leipzig won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Union Berlin at 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per home match, versus RB Leipzig at 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.09 for Union Berlin and 1.23 for RB Leipzig.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.