OpWin.

Home

Lecce

L W L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Fiorentina

L D W D W
OpWin AI Probabilities
Lecce 30% Draw 29% Fiorentina 41%
✨ OpWin Pro Predictions
Winner
Fiorentina
Confidence: 41%
Double Chance
X2
Confidence: 70%
Safe Goals
Under 3.5
Confidence: 77%
BTTS
No
Confidence: 46%
Correct Score
0-1
Confidence: 11%

Lecce Season

Rank#18
Points27
Matches Left7

Fiorentina Season

Rank#16
Points32
Matches Left7

Lecce Last 5

Como 1907 3 - 1
US Cremonese 2 - 1
SSC Napoli 2 - 1
AS Roma 1 - 0
Atalanta BC 0 - 3

Fiorentina Last 5

Udinese Calcio 3 - 0
Parma Calcio 1913 0 - 0
US Cremonese 1 - 4
FC Internazionale Milano 1 - 1
Hellas Verona FC 0 - 1

Head-to-Head

Lecce: 1 Draws: 0 Fiorentina: 2
2025 Fiorentina 0 - 1 Lecce
2025 Fiorentina 1 - 0 Lecce
2024 Lecce 0 - 6 Fiorentina

Form Analysis

Lecce
7W - 6D - 18L
Fiorentina
7W - 11D - 13L

Lecce Performance

⚔️ Efficiency
0.69
Attacks55
Dangerous22
Avg Shots6.3
🛡️ Defense 1.38

Fiorentina Performance

⚔️ Efficiency
1.13
Attacks90
Dangerous36
Avg Shots10.4
🛡️ Defense 1.38

Match Statistics

46% Possession 54%
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3

* Projected stats.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lecce
1.11
Fiorentina
1.35

Live Commentary & Analysis

📝 Pre-match analysis 08:01 PM

In the upcoming Serie A clash at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce faces Fiorentina in what promises to be a decisive encounter for both teams. The math model predicts a Fiorentina win with a 41% confidence rate, likely informed by recent form, head-to-head statistics, and the variance in performances between the two sides. Lecce has struggled against stronger teams, while Fiorentina showcases a more consistent skill set and tactical prowess. This reflects in the 1x2 predictions, where Fiorentina emerges as the logical favorite. For value bet enthusiasts, betting on a Fiorentina victory could provide a rewarding opportunity, especially given their recent form. The model also suggests the safety pick of X2, considering Lecce's unpredictable home advantage. Additionally, the recommendation for under 3.5 goals aligns with both teams’ recent scoring statistics and playing styles, indicating a tactical, low-scoring affair. The likelihood of 'Both Teams To Score' being a no bet stems from Lecce’s recent inability to find the net against tougher opponents, making this Lecce vs Fiorentina prediction one that leans heavily in favour of the visitors. Overall, with an analysis grounded in a poisson distribution model and odds reflecting these insights, bettors should approach this match with caution, yet optimism for Fiorentina's success.

📅 20 Apr 2026
📍 Stadio Via del Mare

Standings & Context

Currently, Lecce sits at position #18 (27 pts). They face Fiorentina who occupy the #16 spot (32 pts).

Performance Analysis

Looking at numbers, Lecce has averaged 0.69 goals at home. Fiorentina travels with an away scoring record of 1.13 goals.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.