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Bahia
W L D W L
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Coritiba
D L L W L
1X2 Bahia 44%
O/U Over 2.5 61%
DC 1X 83%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Bahia 44% Draw 24% Coritiba 33%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Bahia and Coritiba?

Our prediction for the Bahia–Coritiba match is: Bahia to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Bahia to win (44% confidence); over 2.5 goals (61% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Bahia

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Bahia scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

Coritiba

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Coritiba scored an average of 0.60 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Bahia scored 1.40 and conceded 1.80 per match across 5 covered games; Coritiba scored 0.60 and conceded 0.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Marcos Victor contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.72/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Tiago Cóser contributed 0 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.94/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists Rogério Ceni as coach of Bahia. The latest recorded formations are Bahia in 4-3-3 (Nov 6, 2026) and Coritiba in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 4, 2026). Across 9 recent matches with possession and shot data, Bahia averaged 49.6% possession and 12.7 shots per match (3.7 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 9 matches, Coritiba averaged 43.3% possession and 12.8 shots (3.6 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Bahia recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.40 points, 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. Away from home, Coritiba recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in 5 matches, averaging 0.60 points, 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador).

Recent results show that Bahia have a stronger record at home than away: 4 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 2.4 points per home match compared with 0.8 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.75 — 1.44 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

144%Bahia
X25%Draw
231%Coritiba
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 62%U 38%
O/U 3.5O 40%U 60%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Bahia
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Bahia.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 17%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 26%U 74%
3.5O 10%U 90%
Coritiba
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Coritiba.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 76%U 24%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Bahia24%
Coritiba17%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Bahia19%
Coritiba13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Bahia59%
Coritiba41%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Bahia
-1.5W 24%P 0%L 76%
-1W 24%P 20%L 56%
-0.5W 44%P 0%L 56%
0W 44%P 25%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 17%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Coritiba
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 17%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 25%L 44%
+0.5W 56%P 0%L 44%
+1W 56%P 20%L 24%
+1.5W 76%P 0%L 24%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.23%
#22-19.04%
#31-27.46%
#42-26.53%
#51-06.52%
Combined Top 540.78%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Bahia + BTTS25%
Coritiba + BTTS19%
Draw + BTTS20%

Bahia Season

Rank#6
Points53
Matches Left4

Coritiba Season

Rank#12
Points42
Matches Left4

Bahia Last 5

Cruzeiro 3 - 2
Sao Paulo 3 - 2
Santos 1 - 1
Flamengo 0 - 3
Mirassol 1 - 0

Coritiba Last 5

Internacional 1 - 0
Vitoria 2 - 0
Gremio 0 - 1
Atletico-MG 1 - 0
Botafogo 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Bahia: 4 Draws: 0 Coritiba: 1
2026 Coritiba 3 - 2 Bahia
2023 Coritiba 2 - 4 Bahia
2023 Bahia 3 - 1 Coritiba
2020 Coritiba 1 - 2 Bahia
2020 Bahia 1 - 0 Coritiba

Form Analysis

Bahia
L W D L W
Coritiba
L W L L D

Bahia Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.53
Goals scored26
Goals conceded19
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.12

Coritiba Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.06
Goals scored18
Goals conceded30
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.76

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia
2.12
Coritiba
1.05

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Bahia vs Coritiba is a Brasileirão football match on November 21, 2026 at Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova. Recent form is 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LWDLW) for Bahia and 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: LWLLD) for Coritiba. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Bahia is currently #6 with 53 points from 34 matches, while Coritiba is #12 with 42 points from 34. Recent head-to-head history: Bahia won 4, 0 were drawn and Coritiba won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Bahia at 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per home match, versus Coritiba at 1.06 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.12 for Bahia and 1.05 for Coritiba.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.