OpWin.

VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 43%
O/U Over 2.5 64%
DC 1X 70%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Bayer Leverkusen 43% Draw 27% Marseille 30%

Match Momentum

FULL TIME

Estimated attacking momentum from recorded match statistics.

Bayer Leverkusen Marseille
0' 15' 30' HT 60' 75' 90' FT Bayer Leverkusen · 5.0' · 0 Marseille · 5.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 9.0' · 0 Marseille · 9.0' · 1.75 Bayer Leverkusen · 13.0' · 0 Marseille · 13.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 17.0' · 0 Marseille · 17.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 21.0' · 0 Marseille · 21.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 25.0' · 0 Marseille · 25.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 29.0' · 0 Marseille · 29.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 32.0' · 1 Marseille · 32.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 37.0' · 2.25 Marseille · 37.0' · 1.1 Bayer Leverkusen · 41.0' · 0 Marseille · 41.0' · 2 Bayer Leverkusen · 45.0' · 2.1 Marseille · 45.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 45.0' · 2.1 Marseille · 45.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 45.0' · 0 Marseille · 45.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 45.0' · 0 Marseille · 45.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 45.0' · 0 Marseille · 45.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 49.0' · 0 Marseille · 49.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 53.0' · 0 Marseille · 53.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 57.0' · 1 Marseille · 57.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 61.0' · 0 Marseille · 61.0' · 4.1 Bayer Leverkusen · 65.0' · 2.25 Marseille · 65.0' · 1 Bayer Leverkusen · 69.0' · 0 Marseille · 69.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 73.0' · 0 Marseille · 73.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 77.0' · 0 Marseille · 77.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 80.0' · 0 Marseille · 80.0' · 2.25 Bayer Leverkusen · 85.0' · 2.1 Marseille · 85.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 89.0' · 1 Marseille · 89.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 92.0' · 0 Marseille · 92.0' · 0 Bayer Leverkusen · 90.0' · 5.45 Marseille · 90.0' · 0 Card · 6' · Miguel Gutiérrez C Card · 38' · Igor Paixão C Card · 54' · Ulisses Garcia C Substitution · 68' · Lucas Vázquez Afonso Moreira ↔ Substitution · 68' · Robert Andrich Equi Fernández ↔ Substitution · 71' · Igor Paixão Tadjidine Mmadi ↔ Substitution · 71' · Geoffrey Kondogbia Tochukwu Nnadi ↔ Goal · 77' · Amine Gouiri Normal GoalG Substitution · 79' · Ibrahim Maza Malik Tillman ↔ Substitution · 79' · Jonas Hofmann Montrell Culbreath ↔ Substitution · 84' · Ulisses Garcia Alexi Koum ↔ Substitution · 84' · Amine Gouiri Neal Maupay ↔ Card · 90' · Tochukwu Nnadi C

G Goal · C Card · ↔ Substitution · VAR Review

Last sample: 09:57 PM UTC

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Free Pick Accuracy0%
Premium Expected goals 1.73 — 1.52 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

142%Bayer Leverkusen
X24%Draw
233%Marseille
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 84%U 16%
O/U 2.5O 63%U 37%
O/U 3.5O 41%U 59%
O/U 4.5O 23%U 77%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Bayer Leverkusen
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Bayer Leverkusen.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%
Marseille
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Marseille.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Bayer Leverkusen22%
Marseille18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Bayer Leverkusen17%
Marseille13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Bayer Leverkusen56%
Marseille44%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Bayer Leverkusen
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 20%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 24%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 17%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Marseille
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 17%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 24%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 20%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.99%
#22-18.81%
#31-27.74%
#42-26.67%
#51-06.17%
Combined Top 540.38%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Bayer Leverkusen + BTTS25%
Marseille + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Match Timeline

6' 🟥 Miguel Gutiérrez
38' 🟥 Igor Paixão
54' 🟥 Ulisses Garcia
68' 🔄 In: Afonso Moreira
68' 🔄 In: Equi Fernández
71' 🔄 In: Tadjidine Mmadi
71' 🔄 In: Tochukwu Nnadi
77' ⚽ Amine Gouiri
79' 🔄 In: Malik Tillman
79' 🔄 In: Montrell Culbreath
84' 🔄 In: Alexi Koum
84' 🔄 In: Neal Maupay
90' 🟥 Tochukwu Nnadi

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Home
  • M. Flekken
  • J. Quansah
  • E. Tapsoba
  • F. Medina
  • Miguel Gutiérrez
  • Aleix García
  • R. Andrich
  • Lucas Vázquez
  • I. Maza
  • J. Hofmann
  • P. Schick
Marseille Away
  • J. de Lange
  • K. Bezahaf
  • C. Egan-Riley
  • N. Aguerd
  • U. Garcia
  • P. Højbjerg
  • T. Weah
  • G. Kondogbia
  • H. Abdelli
  • Igor Paixão
  • A. Gouiri

Bayer Leverkusen Season

Rank#7
Points9
Matches Left34

Marseille Season

Rank#31
Points3
Matches Left34

Bayer Leverkusen Last 5

OFI 0 - 2
Lech Poznan 0 - 4

Marseille Last 5

Sturm Graz 1 - 0
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 1

Head-to-Head

Bayer Leverkusen: 0 Draws: 0 Marseille: 1
2023 Marseille 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen

Form Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen
L W W W
Marseille
W L L L

Bayer Leverkusen Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored2
Goals conceded1
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.50

Marseille Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.67
Goals scored2
Goals conceded5
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.67

Match Statistics

10Shots8
3Shots on Target2
6Corners2
58%Possession42%
1Yellow Cards3

Expected Goals (xG)

Bayer Leverkusen
1.86
Marseille
1.46

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is a Europa League football match on November 5, 2026 at BayArena. Recent form is 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: LWWW) for Bayer Leverkusen and 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: WLLL) for Marseille. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 Finished
📍 BayArena

Standings & Context

In the Europa League standings, Bayer Leverkusen is currently #7 with 9 points from 4 matches, while Marseille is #31 with 3 points from 4. Recent head-to-head history: Bayer Leverkusen won 0, 0 were drawn and Marseille won 1 across the last 1 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Bayer Leverkusen at 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per home match, versus Marseille at 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.86 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.46 for Marseille. For this finished match, the recorded prediction accuracy is 0% (result: 0 - 1).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.