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Lens
L W L L L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Toulouse
D W D L W
1X2 Toulouse 48%
O/U Over 2.5 69%
DC X2 81%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Lens 29% Draw 23% Toulouse 48%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Lens and Toulouse?

Our prediction for the Lens–Toulouse match is: Toulouse to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Toulouse to win (48% confidence); over 2.5 goals (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Lens

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Lens scored an average of 0.80 goals and conceded 3.20 per match.

Toulouse

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Toulouse scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Lens scored 0.80 and conceded 3.20 per match across 5 covered games; Toulouse scored 1.60 and conceded 1.00 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, F. Thauvin contributed 2 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.81/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 3 recent recorded appearances, S. Oppong contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.12/10 across 3 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Toulouse records a mean of 6.59/10 versus 6.23/10 for Lens.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists D. Toppmöller as coach of Lens. The latest recorded formations are Lens in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 8, 2026) and Toulouse in 4-4-2 (Nov 6, 2026). Across 12 recent matches with possession and shot data, Lens averaged 49.9% possession and 14.8 shots per match (5.2 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 7 matches, Toulouse averaged 52.7% possession and 11.4 shots (4.7 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 6 recent home matches, Lens recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.00 points, 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per match. Away from home, Toulouse recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.20 points, 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Ligue 1 fixture takes place at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Lens: 1.0 points per home match compared with 1.0 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.49 — 1.69 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

133%Lens
X25%Draw
242%Toulouse
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Lens
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Lens.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 44%U 56%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 6%U 94%
Toulouse
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Toulouse.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Lens18%
Toulouse23%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Lens14%
Toulouse18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Lens44%
Toulouse56%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Lens
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 17%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 25%L 42%
+0.5W 58%P 0%L 42%
+1W 58%P 20%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Toulouse
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 20%L 58%
-0.5W 42%P 0%L 58%
0W 42%P 25%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 17%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.25%
#21-28.85%
#32-17.76%
#42-26.57%
#50-16.47%
Combined Top 540.90%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Lens + BTTS20%
Toulouse + BTTS24%
Draw + BTTS20%

Lens Season

Rank#11
Points13
Matches Left24

Toulouse Season

Rank#12
Points13
Matches Left24

Lens Last 5

Marseille 1 - 2
Como 1 - 9
Lille 1 - 0
Paris FC 2 - 1
Club Brugge KV 3 - 0

Toulouse Last 5

Strasbourg 3 - 1
Marseille 2 - 0
Estac Troyes 0 - 0
Le Mans 0 - 3
Monaco 2 - 2

Head-to-Head

Lens: 0 Draws: 1 Toulouse: 4
2026 Lens 4 - 1 Toulouse
2026 Lens 3 - 2 Toulouse
2026 Toulouse 0 - 3 Lens
2025 Toulouse 1 - 1 Lens
2025 Lens 0 - 1 Toulouse

Form Analysis

Lens
L L W W W
Toulouse
W L D W D

Lens Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored10
Goals conceded7
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.40

Toulouse Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.80
Goals scored9
Goals conceded8
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.60

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lens
1.24
Toulouse
2.37

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Lens vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 football match on November 21, 2026 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Recent form is 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: LLWWW) for Lens and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: WLDWD) for Toulouse. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Standings & Context

In the Ligue 1 standings, Lens is currently #11 with 13 points from 10 matches, while Toulouse is #12 with 13 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Lens won 0, 1 were drawn and Toulouse won 4 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Lens at 2.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per home match, versus Toulouse at 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.24 for Lens and 2.37 for Toulouse.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.