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Lille
L D W D W
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Lyon
L L W D L
1X2 Lille 44%
O/U Under 3.5 75%
DC 1X 82%
BTTS Yes 60%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Lille 44% Draw 25% Lyon 32%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Lille and Lyon?

Our prediction for the Lille–Lyon match is: Lille to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Lille to win (44% confidence); under 3.5 goals (75% confidence); both teams to score: yes (60% confidence)

Lille

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Lille scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

Lyon

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Lyon scored an average of 0.60 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Lille scored 1.20 and conceded 1.20 per match across 5 covered games; Lyon scored 0.60 and conceded 1.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, S. Diaoune contributed 3 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.40/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, C. Tolisso contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.41/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list B. Génésio for Lille and Paulo Fonseca for Lyon. The latest recorded formations are Lille in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026) and Lyon in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 11 recent matches with possession and shot data, Lille averaged 51.8% possession and 10.7 shots per match (3.7 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 11 matches, Lyon averaged 52.6% possession and 12.0 shots (4.4 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 7 recent home matches, Lille recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.57 points, 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per match. Away from home, Lyon recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 6 matches, averaging 0.33 points, 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Ligue 1 fixture takes place at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Lille: 1.6 points per home match compared with 1.3 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.61 — 1.36 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

143%Lille
X26%Draw
232%Lyon
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes60%
No40%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 80%U 20%
O/U 2.5O 57%U 43%
O/U 3.5O 35%U 65%
O/U 4.5O 18%U 82%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Lille
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Lille.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Lyon
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Lyon.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 39%U 61%
2.5O 16%U 84%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Lille26%
Lyon20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Lille20%
Lyon14%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Lille58%
Lyon43%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Lille
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 21%L 57%
-0.5W 43%P 0%L 57%
0W 43%P 26%L 32%
+0.5W 68%P 0%L 32%
+1W 68%P 17%L 14%
+1.5W 86%P 0%L 14%
Lyon
-1.5W 14%P 0%L 86%
-1W 14%P 17%L 68%
-0.5W 32%P 0%L 68%
0W 32%P 26%L 43%
+0.5W 57%P 0%L 43%
+1W 57%P 21%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.12%
#22-19.03%
#31-27.61%
#41-07.55%
#52-06.63%
Combined Top 542.94%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Lille + BTTS23%
Lyon + BTTS17%
Draw + BTTS20%

Lille Season

Rank#2
Points21
Matches Left24

Lyon Season

Rank#5
Points17
Matches Left24

Lille Last 5

Rennes 1 - 2
Bodo/Glimt 0 - 0
Lens 1 - 0
Monaco 1 - 1
Galatasaray 2 - 4

Lyon Last 5

Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0
Real Sociedad 1 - 1
Angers 2 - 0
Paris Saint Germain 2 - 0
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

Lille: 0 Draws: 1 Lyon: 4
2026 Lyon 1 - 0 Lille
2026 Lille 1 - 2 Lyon
2025 Lille 0 - 1 Lyon
2025 Lyon 2 - 1 Lille
2024 Lille 1 - 1 Lyon

Form Analysis

Lille
W W D D W
Lyon
L W L W L

Lille Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.40
Goals scored7
Goals conceded3
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.60

Lyon Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.60
Goals scored3
Goals conceded6
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.20

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Lille
1.68
Lyon
0.86

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Lille vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 football match on November 21, 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Recent form is 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: WWDDW) for Lille and 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: LWLWL) for Lyon. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Standings & Context

In the Ligue 1 standings, Lille is currently #2 with 21 points from 10 matches, while Lyon is #5 with 17 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Lille won 0, 1 were drawn and Lyon won 4 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Lille at 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per home match, versus Lyon at 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.68 for Lille and 0.86 for Lyon.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.