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Monza
D L W L W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Napoli
D W L L W
1X2 Monza 53%
O/U Over 2.5 69%
DC 1X 83%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Monza 53% Draw 27% Napoli 20%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Monza and Napoli?

Our prediction for the Monza–Napoli match is: Monza to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Monza to win (53% confidence); over 2.5 goals (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (65% confidence)

Monza

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Monza scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

Napoli

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Napoli scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Monza scored 2.00 and conceded 1.60 per match across 5 covered games; Napoli scored 1.80 and conceded 1.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Gustavo Varela contributed 4 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.78/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, K. De Bruyne contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.14/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Monza records a mean of 6.85/10 versus 6.55/10 for Napoli.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list A. Nesta for Monza and A. Conte for Napoli. The latest recorded formations are Monza in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 19, 2026) and Napoli in 3-4-2-1 (Oct 20, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, Monza averaged 45.8% possession and 15.0 shots per match (6.6 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 8 matches, Napoli averaged 51.0% possession and 15.4 shots (5.8 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 3 recent home matches, Monza recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.00 points, 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. Away from home, Napoli recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in 4 matches, averaging 0.25 points, 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.80 — 1.48 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

145%Monza
X24%Draw
231%Napoli
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 64%U 36%
O/U 3.5O 42%U 58%
O/U 4.5O 23%U 77%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Monza
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 89%

The model assigns 89% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Monza.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 84%U 16%
1.5O 54%U 46%
2.5O 27%U 73%
3.5O 11%U 89%
Napoli
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Napoli.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 43%U 57%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Monza23%
Napoli16%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Monza18%
Napoli12%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Monza59%
Napoli41%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Monza
-1.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
-1W 25%P 20%L 55%
-0.5W 45%P 0%L 55%
0W 45%P 24%L 31%
+0.5W 69%P 0%L 31%
+1W 69%P 17%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Napoli
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 17%L 69%
-0.5W 31%P 0%L 69%
0W 31%P 24%L 45%
+0.5W 55%P 0%L 45%
+1W 55%P 20%L 25%
+1.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.77%
#22-19.00%
#31-27.39%
#42-26.67%
#51-06.18%
Combined Top 540.01%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Monza + BTTS26%
Napoli + BTTS19%
Draw + BTTS20%

Monza Season

Rank#14
Points7
Matches Left31

Napoli Season

Rank#9
Points10
Matches Left31

Monza Last 5

Cagliari 4 - 0
Lazio 3 - 1
Sassuolo 2 - 1
Lecce 3 - 2
Parma 1 - 1

Napoli Last 5

Bodo/Glimt 4 - 3
Venezia 1 - 0
Villarreal 3 - 1
Frosinone 3 - 0
Fiorentina 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Monza: 1 Draws: 1 Napoli: 3
2025 Monza 0 - 1 Napoli
2024 Napoli 2 - 0 Monza
2024 Monza 2 - 4 Napoli
2023 Napoli 0 - 0 Monza
2023 Monza 2 - 0 Napoli

Form Analysis

Monza
W L W L D
Napoli
L W D W L

Monza Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.67
Goals scored8
Goals conceded4
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.33

Napoli Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.25
Goals scored5
Goals conceded5
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.25

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Monza
2.44
Napoli
1.20

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Monza vs Napoli is a Serie A football match on October 28, 2026 at U-Power Stadium. Recent form is 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: WLWLD) for Monza and 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LWDWL) for Napoli. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 28 Oct 2026
📍 U-Power Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Serie A standings, Monza is currently #14 with 7 points from 7 matches, while Napoli is #9 with 10 points from 7. Recent head-to-head history: Monza won 1, 1 were drawn and Napoli won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Monza at 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per home match, versus Napoli at 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.44 for Monza and 1.20 for Napoli.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.