OpWin.

VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
1X2 New Mexico United 41%
O/U Over 2.5 71%
DC 1X 72%
BTTS Yes 66%
OpWin AI Probabilities
New Mexico United 41% Draw 24% Sacramento Republic 34%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic?

Our prediction for the New Mexico United–Sacramento Republic match is: New Mexico United to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

New Mexico United to win (41% confidence); over 2.5 goals (71% confidence); both teams to score: yes (66% confidence)

Match context

The coaching matchup recorded for this fixture is Z. Prince with New Mexico United against N. Collins with Sacramento Republic.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, New Mexico United recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.40 points, 2.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Away from home, Sacramento Republic recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in 3 matches, averaging 2.33 points, 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This USL Championship fixture takes place at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.

Recent results show that New Mexico United have a stronger record at home than away: 4 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 2.4 points per home match compared with 1.0 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.73 — 1.56 Reliability 0%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

141%New Mexico United
X24%Draw
234%Sacramento Republic
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes66%
No34%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 64%U 36%
O/U 3.5O 42%U 58%
O/U 4.5O 24%U 76%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

New Mexico United
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for New Mexico United.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%
Sacramento Republic
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sacramento Republic.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

New Mexico United21%
Sacramento Republic18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

New Mexico United17%
Sacramento Republic13%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

New Mexico United55%
Sacramento Republic45%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

New Mexico United
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 19%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 24%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 17%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Sacramento Republic
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 17%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 24%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 19%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.82%
#22-18.68%
#31-27.82%
#42-26.77%
#51-05.85%
Combined Top 539.94%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

New Mexico United + BTTS25%
Sacramento Republic + BTTS21%
Draw + BTTS20%

New Mexico United Season

Rank#1
Points52
Matches Left8

Sacramento Republic Season

Rank#2
Points51
Matches Left8

New Mexico United Last 5

Colorado Springs 4 - 0
Phoenix Rising 2 - 0
El Paso Locomotive 0 - 1
San Antonio 1 - 0
Monterey Bay 3 - 1

Sacramento Republic Last 5

El Paso Locomotive 2 - 1
FC Tulsa 1 - 0
Oakland Roots 3 - 2
El Paso Locomotive 0 - 1
Colorado Springs 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

New Mexico United: 1 Draws: 0 Sacramento Republic: 4
2026 New Mexico United 2 - 3 Sacramento Republic
2026 Sacramento Republic 0 - 1 New Mexico United
2025 New Mexico United 0 - 2 Sacramento Republic
2025 Sacramento Republic 2 - 1 New Mexico United
2024 Sacramento Republic 4 - 0 New Mexico United

Form Analysis

New Mexico United
W W W L W
Sacramento Republic
W W W W D

New Mexico United Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.73
Goals scored26
Goals conceded18
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.20

Sacramento Republic Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored15
Goals conceded14
Matches15
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.93

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

New Mexico United
2.13
Sacramento Republic
1.58

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic is a Football football match on November 15, 2026 at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. Recent form is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLW) for New Mexico United and 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWWD) for Sacramento Republic. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 15 Nov 2026
📍 Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, New Mexico United is currently #1 with 52 points from 30 matches, while Sacramento Republic is #2 with 51 points from 30. Recent head-to-head history: New Mexico United won 1, 0 were drawn and Sacramento Republic won 4 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows New Mexico United at 1.73 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per home match, versus Sacramento Republic at 1.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.13 for New Mexico United and 1.58 for Sacramento Republic.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.