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Rayo Vallecano
W L W D D
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Elche
D L W D D
1X2 Rayo Vallecano 47%
O/U Over 2.5 66%
DC 1X 70%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Rayo Vallecano 47% Draw 25% Elche 28%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Rayo Vallecano and Elche?

Our prediction for the Rayo Vallecano–Elche match is: Rayo Vallecano to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Rayo Vallecano to win (47% confidence); over 2.5 goals (66% confidence); both teams to score: yes (65% confidence)

Rayo Vallecano

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Rayo Vallecano scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

Elche

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Elche scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Rayo Vallecano scored 1.60 and conceded 1.80 per match across 5 covered games; Elche scored 1.20 and conceded 1.00 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Sergio Camello contributed 4 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.61/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Fer Niño contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.12/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Iñigo Pérez for Rayo Vallecano and Eder Sarabia for Elche. The latest recorded formations are Rayo Vallecano in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 19, 2026) and Elche in 5-3-2 (Oct 17, 2026). Across 5 recent matches with possession and shot data, Rayo Vallecano averaged 55.6% possession and 18.0 shots per match (5.2 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 6 matches, Elche averaged 48.3% possession and 10.5 shots (3.8 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

This La Liga fixture takes place at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Rayo Vallecano, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.71 — 1.53 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

141%Rayo Vallecano
X24%Draw
234%Elche
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 84%U 16%
O/U 2.5O 63%U 37%
O/U 3.5O 41%U 60%
O/U 4.5O 23%U 77%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Rayo Vallecano
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Rayo Vallecano.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 51%U 49%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Elche
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Elche.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Rayo Vallecano22%
Elche18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Rayo Vallecano17%
Elche14%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Rayo Vallecano55%
Elche45%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Rayo Vallecano
-1.5W 22%P 0%L 78%
-1W 22%P 20%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 24%L 34%
+0.5W 66%P 0%L 34%
+1W 66%P 18%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Elche
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 18%L 66%
-0.5W 34%P 0%L 66%
0W 34%P 24%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 20%L 22%
+1.5W 78%P 0%L 22%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.02%
#22-18.72%
#31-27.84%
#42-26.69%
#51-06.11%
Combined Top 540.38%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Rayo Vallecano + BTTS24%
Elche + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Rayo Vallecano Season

Rank#13
Points9
Matches Left30

Elche Season

Rank#18
Points7
Matches Left29

Rayo Vallecano Last 5

Getafe 1 - 1
Osasuna 1 - 1
Espanyol 2 - 1
Real Madrid 4 - 1
Racing Santander 3 - 2

Elche Last 5

Villarreal 0 - 0
Celta Vigo 0 - 0
Espanyol 1 - 3
Real Madrid 2 - 3
Athletic Club 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Rayo Vallecano: 2 Draws: 0 Elche: 3
2026 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Elche
2025 Elche 4 - 0 Rayo Vallecano
2023 Elche 4 - 0 Rayo Vallecano
2022 Rayo Vallecano 2 - 1 Elche
2022 Elche 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano

Form Analysis

Rayo Vallecano
W L W D D
Elche
D L W D D

Rayo Vallecano Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.50
Goals scored5
Goals conceded3
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.50

Elche Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.50
Goals scored6
Goals conceded5
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.25

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano
1.93
Elche
1.51

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche is a La Liga football match on October 24, 2026 at El Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas. Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: WLWDD) for Rayo Vallecano and 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses (form: DLWDD) for Elche. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Oct 2026
📍 El Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas

Standings & Context

In the La Liga standings, Rayo Vallecano is currently #13 with 9 points from 8 matches, while Elche is #18 with 7 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: Rayo Vallecano won 2, 0 were drawn and Elche won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Rayo Vallecano at 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per home match, versus Elche at 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.93 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.51 for Elche.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.