OpWin.

Menu
Home Results Rankings Our data
Tools
Odds Converter Kelly Calculator
Settings
Language
EN FR ES PT IT AR
Dark Mode
About Us Contact Privacy
Home

Southampton
D W W D L
VS
AI Predicts: 2-0
Away

Derby
L D L L W
1X2 Southampton 66%
O/U Over 2.5 62%
DC 1X 90%
BTTS Yes 63%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Southampton 66% Draw 18% Derby 16%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Southampton and Derby?

Our prediction for the Southampton–Derby match is: Southampton to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Southampton to win (66% confidence); over 2.5 goals (62% confidence); both teams to score: yes (63% confidence)

Southampton

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Southampton scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

Derby

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Derby scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 2.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Southampton scored 1.60 and conceded 1.00 per match across 5 covered games; Derby scored 1.00 and conceded 2.20 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, R. Manning contributed 0 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.81/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, C. Morris contributed 0 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.78/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Southampton records a mean of 6.75/10 versus 6.30/10 for Derby.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list S. Rusk for Southampton and J. Eustace for Derby. The latest recorded formations are Southampton in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026) and Derby in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 6, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Southampton averaged 55.0% possession and 14.8 shots per match (5.2 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Derby averaged 48.7% possession and 12.8 shots (4.1 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Southampton recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses, averaging 2.60 points, 2.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match. Away from home, Derby recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 4 matches, averaging 0.50 points, 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Championship fixture takes place at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton).

Recent results show that Southampton have a stronger record at home than away: 4 wins in 5 home matches, averaging 2.6 points per home match compared with 1.4 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.83 — 1.34 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

148%Southampton
X24%Draw
228%Derby
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes63%
No37%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 83%U 17%
O/U 2.5O 61%U 39%
O/U 3.5O 39%U 61%
O/U 4.5O 21%U 79%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Southampton
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 89%

The model assigns 89% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Southampton.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 84%U 16%
1.5O 54%U 46%
2.5O 28%U 72%
3.5O 11%U 89%
Derby
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Derby.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 39%U 61%
2.5O 15%U 85%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Southampton26%
Derby16%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Southampton21%
Derby11%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Southampton64%
Derby36%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Southampton
-1.5W 27%P 0%L 73%
-1W 27%P 21%L 52%
-0.5W 48%P 0%L 52%
0W 48%P 24%L 28%
+0.5W 72%P 0%L 28%
+1W 72%P 15%L 12%
+1.5W 88%P 0%L 12%
Derby
-1.5W 12%P 0%L 88%
-1W 12%P 15%L 72%
-0.5W 28%P 0%L 72%
0W 28%P 24%L 48%
+0.5W 52%P 0%L 48%
+1W 52%P 21%L 27%
+1.5W 73%P 0%L 27%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.06%
#22-19.40%
#31-07.09%
#42-07.00%
#51-26.90%
Combined Top 541.45%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Southampton + BTTS27%
Derby + BTTS16%
Draw + BTTS19%

Southampton Season

Rank#7
Points24
Matches Left23

Derby Season

Rank#23
Points10
Matches Left23

Southampton Last 5

Preston 1 - 0
West Brom 1 - 1
QPR 4 - 1
West Ham 2 - 3
Bolton 0 - 0

Derby Last 5

Bolton 3 - 1
Norwich 0 - 4
Millwall 4 - 1
Sheffield Utd 1 - 1
Stoke City 0 - 1

Head-to-Head

Southampton: 2 Draws: 3 Derby: 0
2026 Southampton 2 - 1 Derby
2025 Derby 1 - 1 Southampton
2019 Southampton 4 - 4 Derby
2019 Derby 2 - 2 Southampton
2012 Southampton 4 - 0 Derby

Form Analysis

Southampton
L D W W D
Derby
W L L D L

Southampton Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.86
Goals scored20
Goals conceded5
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.71

Derby Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored7
Goals conceded15
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.14

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton
2.49
Derby
0.80

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Southampton vs Derby is a Football football match on November 21, 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium. Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: LDWWD) for Southampton and 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: WLLDL) for Derby. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 St. Mary's Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Southampton is currently #7 with 24 points from 15 matches, while Derby is #23 with 10 points from 15. Recent head-to-head history: Southampton won 2, 3 were drawn and Derby won 0 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Southampton at 2.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per home match, versus Derby at 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.49 for Southampton and 0.80 for Derby.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.