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Sparta Praha
D L L
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

AZ Alkmaar
W W L
1X2 AZ Alkmaar 43%
O/U Over 2.5 58%
DC X2 79%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Sparta Praha 34% Draw 23% AZ Alkmaar 43%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Sparta Praha and AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction for the Sparta Praha–AZ Alkmaar match is: AZ Alkmaar to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

AZ Alkmaar to win (43% confidence); over 2.5 goals (58% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Sparta Praha

Across the 3 most recent finished matches with available data, Sparta Praha scored an average of 0.67 goals and conceded 1.67 per match.

AZ Alkmaar

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, AZ Alkmaar scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Sparta Praha scored 0.67 and conceded 1.67 per match across 3 covered games; AZ Alkmaar scored 1.80 and conceded 1.60 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 3 recent recorded appearances, J. Alcócer contributed 1 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.94/10 across 3 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, M. Meerdink contributed 4 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.19/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists M. Martens as coach of AZ Alkmaar. The latest recorded formations are Sparta Praha in 4-3-3 (Nov 5, 2026) and AZ Alkmaar in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 3 recent matches with possession and shot data, Sparta Praha averaged 44.7% possession and 13.7 shots per match (4.0 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. Across 11 matches, AZ Alkmaar averaged 58.3% possession and 15.8 shots (5.5 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

This UEFA Europa League fixture takes place at epet ARENA (Prague).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Sparta Praha, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.45 — 1.63 Reliability 60%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

133%Sparta Praha
X25%Draw
241%AZ Alkmaar
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 82%U 18%
O/U 2.5O 59%U 41%
O/U 3.5O 37%U 63%
O/U 4.5O 20%U 80%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Sparta Praha
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sparta Praha.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%
AZ Alkmaar
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for AZ Alkmaar.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 48%U 52%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Sparta Praha20%
AZ Alkmaar23%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Sparta Praha14%
AZ Alkmaar18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Sparta Praha45%
AZ Alkmaar55%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Sparta Praha
-1.5W 16%P 0%L 84%
-1W 16%P 18%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 25%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 20%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
AZ Alkmaar
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 20%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 25%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 18%L 16%
+1.5W 84%P 0%L 16%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.70%
#21-28.84%
#32-17.85%
#40-16.90%
#52-26.39%
Combined Top 541.68%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Sparta Praha + BTTS19%
AZ Alkmaar + BTTS23%
Draw + BTTS20%

Sparta Praha Season

Rank#22
Points4
Matches Left34

AZ Alkmaar Season

Rank#14
Points6
Matches Left34

Sparta Praha Last 5

Bournemouth 1 - 3
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0
Lillestrom 1 - 1

AZ Alkmaar Last 5

Juventus 1 - 2
Ararat-Armenia 0 - 4
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2 - 1

Head-to-Head

Sparta Praha: 0 Draws: 0 AZ Alkmaar: 2
2026 Sparta Praha 0 - 4 AZ Alkmaar
2026 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Sparta Praha

Form Analysis

Sparta Praha
L L D W
AZ Alkmaar
L W W L

Sparta Praha Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored2
Goals conceded4
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

AZ Alkmaar Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.00
Goals scored4
Goals conceded1
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.50

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sparta Praha
1.11
AZ Alkmaar
1.94

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar is a Europa League football match on November 26, 2026 at epet ARENA. Recent form is 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LLDW) for Sparta Praha and 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: LWWL) for AZ Alkmaar. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 26 Nov 2026
📍 epet ARENA

Standings & Context

In the Europa League standings, Sparta Praha is currently #22 with 4 points from 4 matches, while AZ Alkmaar is #14 with 6 points from 4. Recent head-to-head history: Sparta Praha won 0, 0 were drawn and AZ Alkmaar won 2 across the last 2 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Sparta Praha at 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per home match, versus AZ Alkmaar at 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.11 for Sparta Praha and 1.94 for AZ Alkmaar.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.