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Stoke City
W D W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Birmingham
W L W W W
1X2 Birmingham 38%
O/U Over 1.5 77%
DC 1X 65%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Stoke City 37% Draw 25% Birmingham 38%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Stoke City and Birmingham?

Our prediction for the Stoke City–Birmingham match is: over 1.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Birmingham to win (38% confidence); Stoke City to win or draw (65% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Stoke City

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Stoke City scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 0.40 per match.

Birmingham

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Birmingham scored an average of 2.20 goals and conceded 0.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Stoke City and Birmingham average 3.60 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. McGlynn contributed 3 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.42/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Stansfield contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.17/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Birmingham records a mean of 6.76/10 versus 6.60/10 for Stoke City.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list M. Robins for Stoke City and H. Redknapp for Birmingham. The latest recorded formations are Stoke City in 3-4-3 (Nov 7, 2026) and Birmingham in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Stoke City averaged 47.4% possession and 11.5 shots per match (3.7 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. Across 10 matches, Birmingham averaged 53.0% possession and 15.6 shots (6.1 on target), a high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 4 recent home matches, Stoke City recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses, averaging 1.75 points, 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Away from home, Birmingham recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.80 points, 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Championship fixture takes place at Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent).

Stoke City's recent home record is weaker than its away record: 1 defeats in 4 home matches, averaging 1.8 points per home match compared with 2.7 away.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.52 — 1.50 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

138%Stoke City
X26%Draw
237%Birmingham
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 58%U 42%
O/U 3.5O 36%U 64%
O/U 4.5O 19%U 81%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Stoke City
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Stoke City.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 45%U 55%
2.5O 20%U 80%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Birmingham
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Birmingham.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 78%U 22%
1.5O 44%U 56%
2.5O 19%U 81%
3.5O 7%U 93%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Stoke City22%
Birmingham22%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Stoke City17%
Birmingham16%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Stoke City51%
Birmingham49%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Stoke City
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 19%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 26%L 37%
+0.5W 63%P 0%L 37%
+1W 63%P 19%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Birmingham
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 19%L 63%
-0.5W 37%P 0%L 63%
0W 37%P 26%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 19%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.06%
#22-18.44%
#31-28.31%
#41-06.69%
#50-16.58%
Combined Top 542.08%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Stoke City + BTTS21%
Birmingham + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Stoke City Season

Rank#3
Points29
Matches Left23

Birmingham Season

Rank#1
Points29
Matches Left23

Stoke City Last 5

Portsmouth 1 - 2
Blackburn 1 - 2
Preston 2 - 0
Bristol City 0 - 0
Derby 0 - 1

Birmingham Last 5

Swansea 2 - 1
Millwall 3 - 0
Lincoln 1 - 3
Cardiff 1 - 0
QPR 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

Stoke City: 2 Draws: 2 Birmingham: 1
2026 Birmingham 1 - 1 Stoke City
2025 Stoke City 1 - 0 Birmingham
2024 Stoke City 1 - 2 Birmingham
2023 Birmingham 1 - 3 Stoke City
2023 Birmingham 0 - 0 Stoke City

Form Analysis

Stoke City
W W W D W
Birmingham
W W W L W

Stoke City Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.71
Goals scored12
Goals conceded6
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.86

Birmingham Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.29
Goals scored9
Goals conceded6
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.86

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Stoke City
1.40
Birmingham
1.32

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Stoke City vs Birmingham is a Football football match on November 21, 2026 at bet365 Stadium. Recent form is 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWDW) for Stoke City and 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses (form: WWWLW) for Birmingham. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 21 Nov 2026
📍 bet365 Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Stoke City is currently #3 with 29 points from 15 matches, while Birmingham is #1 with 29 points from 15. Recent head-to-head history: Stoke City won 2, 2 were drawn and Birmingham won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Stoke City at 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per home match, versus Birmingham at 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.40 for Stoke City and 1.32 for Birmingham.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.