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Toluca

D D D D W
VS
AI Predicts: 1-2
Away

Monterrey

W W L D L
1X2 Toluca 40%
O/U Over 2.5 75%
DC X2 69%
BTTS Yes 67%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Toluca 40% Draw 23% Monterrey 37%
Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Free Pick Accuracy50%
Premium Expected goals 1.69 — 1.68 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

138%Toluca
X24%Draw
238%Monterrey
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes67%
No33%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 65%U 35%
O/U 3.5O 43%U 57%
O/U 4.5O 25%U 75%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Toluca
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Toluca.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 82%U 18%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%
Monterrey
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 91%

The model assigns 91% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Monterrey.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 50%U 50%
2.5O 24%U 76%
3.5O 9%U 91%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Toluca19%
Monterrey18%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Toluca15%
Monterrey15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Toluca50%
Monterrey50%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Toluca
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 18%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 24%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 18%L 19%
+1.5W 81%P 0%L 19%
Monterrey
-1.5W 19%P 0%L 81%
-1W 19%P 18%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 24%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 18%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.53%
#22-18.23%
#31-28.20%
#42-26.91%
#51-05.27%
Combined Top 539.14%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Toluca + BTTS24%
Monterrey + BTTS23%
Draw + BTTS20%

Match Timeline

8' ⚽ Nicolás Castro
23' ⚽ João Paulo Dias Fernandes
48' 🟥 César Garza
51' ⚽ João Paulo Dias Fernandes
54' 🟥 Lucas Ocampos
54' 🟥 Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
54' 🟥 Orbelín Pineda
57' 🔄 In: Iker Fimbres
57' 🔄 In: Aldo De Nigris
57' 🔄 In: Erick Aguirre
59' 🟥 Óliver Torres
61' 🟥 Carlos Salcedo
64' 🔄 In: Fidel Ambriz
64' 🔄 In: Stefan Medina
69' 🔄 In: Jesús Angulo
69' 🔄 In: Federico Viñas
71' 🟥 Fidel Ambriz
76' 🔄 In: Fernando Arce
76' 🔄 In: Víctor Guzmán
84' 🔄 In: Pavel Pérez
90' ⚽ Jesús Gallardo

Lineups

Toluca Home
  • H. González
  • B. García
  • Luan
  • E. López
  • J. Gallardo
  • F. Romero
  • É. Gutiérrez
  • Helinho
  • N. Castro
  • A. Vega
  • Paulinho
Monterrey Away
  • E. Andrada
  • R. Chávez
  • V. Guzmán
  • C. Salcedo
  • G. Arteaga
  • Óliver Torres
  • O. Pineda
  • Cesar Garza Cantu
  • D. Rossi
  • L. Ocampos
  • H. Cuypers

Toluca Season

Rank#4
Points27
Matches Left22

Monterrey Season

Rank#10
Points21
Matches Left23

Toluca Last 5

Monterrey 4 - 0
Club America 2 - 2
Leon 1 - 1
Club Tijuana 2 - 2
Atletico San Luis 1 - 1

Monterrey Last 5

Toluca 4 - 0
Club Tijuana 3 - 3
Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 1
Puebla 1 - 4
CF Pachuca 2 - 1

Head-to-Head

Toluca: 3 Draws: 0 Monterrey: 2
2026 Monterrey 2 - 1 Toluca
2026 Toluca 2 - 0 Monterrey
2026 Monterrey 0 - 1 Toluca
2025 Toluca 3 - 2 Monterrey
2025 Monterrey 1 - 0 Toluca

Form Analysis

Toluca
W D D D D
Monterrey
L D L W W

Toluca Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.75
Goals scored22
Goals conceded11
Matches8
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.38

Monterrey Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.43
Goals scored10
Goals conceded14
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

Match Statistics

10Shots7
7Shots on Target2
6Corners6
62%Possession38%
1Yellow Cards5

Expected Goals (xG)

Toluca
1.78
Monterrey
2.20

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Toluca vs Monterrey is a Football football match on November 7, 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Díez. Recent form is 1 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses (form: WDDDD) for Toluca and 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LDLWW) for Monterrey. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 Finished
📍 Estadio Nemesio Díez

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Toluca is currently #4 with 27 points from 16 matches, while Monterrey is #10 with 21 points from 15. Recent head-to-head history: Toluca won 3, 0 were drawn and Monterrey won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Toluca at 2.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per home match, versus Monterrey at 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.78 for Toluca and 2.20 for Monterrey. For this finished match, the recorded prediction accuracy is 50% (result: 4 - 0).

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.