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Tondela
W L W D
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Farense
W W L D L
1X2 Tondela 41%
O/U Under 3.5 75%
DC 1X 77%
BTTS Yes 61%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Tondela 41% Draw 26% Farense 33%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Tondela and Farense?

Our prediction for the Tondela–Farense match is: Tondela to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Tondela to win (41% confidence); under 3.5 goals (75% confidence); both teams to score: yes (61% confidence)

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Ivo Vieira for Tondela and Álvaro Magalhães for Farense. The latest recorded formations are Tondela in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 8, 2026) and Farense in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026). Across 4 recent matches with possession and shot data, Tondela averaged 58.8% possession and 17.5 shots per match (5.5 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 5 matches, Farense averaged 51.2% possession and 12.8 shots (5.8 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

This Segunda Liga fixture takes place at Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela).

The recent records do not include at least three completed, scored matches both at home and away for Tondela, so a reliable home/away effect cannot be assessed.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.60 — 1.40 Reliability 80%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

141%Tondela
X26%Draw
233%Farense
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes61%
No39%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 58%U 42%
O/U 3.5O 35%U 65%
O/U 4.5O 18%U 82%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Tondela
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Tondela.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 22%U 78%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Farense
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Farense.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 75%U 25%
1.5O 41%U 59%
2.5O 17%U 83%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Tondela25%
Farense20%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Tondela19%
Farense15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Tondela56%
Farense44%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Tondela
-1.5W 21%P 0%L 79%
-1W 21%P 20%L 59%
-0.5W 41%P 0%L 59%
0W 41%P 26%L 33%
+0.5W 67%P 0%L 33%
+1W 67%P 18%L 15%
+1.5W 85%P 0%L 15%
Farense
-1.5W 15%P 0%L 85%
-1W 15%P 18%L 67%
-0.5W 33%P 0%L 67%
0W 33%P 26%L 41%
+0.5W 59%P 0%L 41%
+1W 59%P 20%L 21%
+1.5W 79%P 0%L 21%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.02%
#22-18.89%
#31-27.80%
#41-07.30%
#52-06.34%
Combined Top 542.35%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Tondela + BTTS23%
Farense + BTTS18%
Draw + BTTS20%

Tondela Season

Rank#7
Points16
Matches Left28

Farense Season

Rank#8
Points15
Matches Left28

Tondela Last 5

Sporting CP B 1 - 1
Felgueiras 1932 3 - 2
AVS 2 - 1
Torreense 1 - 0

Farense Last 5

Benfica B 2 - 3
Lusitânia Lourosa 1 - 1
Penafiel 1 - 4
Feirense 2 - 1
Chaves 4 - 0

Head-to-Head

Tondela: 2 Draws: 0 Farense: 3
2023 Farense 1 - 0 Tondela
2023 Farense 3 - 1 Tondela
2023 Tondela 1 - 0 Farense
2021 Farense 1 - 0 Tondela
2021 Tondela 2 - 0 Farense

Form Analysis

Tondela
D W L W W
Farense
L D L W W

Tondela Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.80
Goals scored9
Goals conceded5
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Farense Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.25
Goals scored5
Goals conceded4
Matches4
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela
1.56
Farense
0.96

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Tondela vs Farense is a Football football match on November 15, 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses (form: DWLWW) for Tondela and 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses (form: LDLWW) for Farense. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 15 Nov 2026
📍 Estádio João Cardoso

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Tondela is currently #7 with 16 points from 10 matches, while Farense is #8 with 15 points from 10. Recent head-to-head history: Tondela won 2, 0 were drawn and Farense won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Tondela at 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home match, versus Farense at 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.56 for Tondela and 0.96 for Farense.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.