OpWin.

VS
AI Predicts: 3-0
1X2 Union St. Gilloise 71%
O/U Over 2.5 70%
DC 1X 94%
BTTS Yes 64%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Union St. Gilloise 71% Draw 17% Lech Poznan 12%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Union St. Gilloise and Lech Poznan?

Our prediction for the Union St. Gilloise–Lech Poznan match is: Union St. Gilloise to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Union St. Gilloise to win (71% confidence); over 2.5 goals (70% confidence); both teams to score: yes (64% confidence)

Union St. Gilloise

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Union St. Gilloise scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

Lech Poznan

Across the 3 most recent finished matches with available data, Lech Poznan scored an average of 0.67 goals and conceded 2.67 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Union St. Gilloise scored 2.80 and conceded 0.80 per match across 5 covered games; Lech Poznan scored 0.67 and conceded 2.67 across 3.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Besfort Zeneli contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.61/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 3 recent recorded appearances, L. Bengtsson contributed 2 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.73/10 across 3 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Union St. Gilloise records a mean of 6.83/10 versus 6.25/10 for Lech Poznan.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current record lists S. Pocognoli as coach of Union St. Gilloise. The latest recorded formations are Union St. Gilloise in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 8, 2026) and Lech Poznan in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 5, 2026). Across 8 recent matches with possession and shot data, Union St. Gilloise averaged 54.6% possession and 18.6 shots per match (6.9 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 3 matches, Lech Poznan averaged 42.0% possession and 10.7 shots (4.7 on target), a a lower-possession profile that still produces shots profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

This UEFA Europa League fixture takes place at Den Dreef (Heverlee).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Union St. Gilloise: 2.2 points per home match compared with 3.0 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.98 — 1.34 Reliability 60%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

152%Union St. Gilloise
X23%Draw
225%Lech Poznan
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes64%
No36%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 64%U 36%
O/U 3.5O 42%U 58%
O/U 4.5O 24%U 76%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Union St. Gilloise
More model-supported option Over 0.5 goals · 86%

The model assigns 86% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Union St. Gilloise.

Possible alternative Under 3.5 goals · 86%

A different goal line with 86% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 86%U 14%
1.5O 59%U 41%
2.5O 32%U 68%
3.5O 14%U 86%
Lech Poznan
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Lech Poznan.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 85%

A different goal line with 85% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 74%U 26%
1.5O 39%U 61%
2.5O 15%U 85%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Union St. Gilloise26%
Lech Poznan14%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Union St. Gilloise22%
Lech Poznan10%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Union St. Gilloise67%
Lech Poznan33%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Union St. Gilloise
-1.5W 30%P 0%L 70%
-1W 30%P 21%L 48%
-0.5W 52%P 0%L 48%
0W 52%P 23%L 25%
+0.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
+1W 75%P 14%L 11%
+1.5W 89%P 0%L 11%
Lech Poznan
-1.5W 11%P 0%L 89%
-1W 11%P 14%L 75%
-0.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
0W 25%P 23%L 52%
+0.5W 48%P 0%L 52%
+1W 48%P 21%L 30%
+1.5W 70%P 0%L 30%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.38%
#22-19.48%
#32-07.09%
#41-06.59%
#51-26.40%
Combined Top 539.94%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Union St. Gilloise + BTTS30%
Lech Poznan + BTTS16%
Draw + BTTS19%

Union St. Gilloise Season

Rank#4
Points10
Matches Left34

Lech Poznan Season

Rank#35
Points1
Matches Left34

Union St. Gilloise Last 5

Celta Vigo 1 - 2
Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 - 0
Real Sociedad 1 - 1

Lech Poznan Last 5

Benfica 3 - 1
Sunderland 1 - 1
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 4

Head-to-Head

No recent meetings found.

Form Analysis

Union St. Gilloise
W W D W
Lech Poznan
L D L L

Union St. Gilloise Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.50
Goals scored5
Goals conceded1
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.50

Lech Poznan Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.50
Goals scored1
Goals conceded7
Matches2
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)3.50

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Union St. Gilloise
3.06
Lech Poznan
0.78

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan is a Europa League football match on November 26, 2026 at Stade Joseph Mariën. Recent form is 3 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses (form: WWDW) for Union St. Gilloise and 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: LDLL) for Lech Poznan. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 26 Nov 2026
📍 Stade Joseph Mariën

Standings & Context

In the Europa League standings, Union St. Gilloise is currently #4 with 10 points from 4 matches, while Lech Poznan is #35 with 1 points from 4. Recent head-to-head history: No recent head-to-head history is available for this fixture..

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Union St. Gilloise at 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per home match, versus Lech Poznan at 0.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 3.06 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.78 for Lech Poznan.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.