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Valladolid
W L L W W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Castellón
D L W W D
1X2 Castellón 46%
O/U Over 2.5 67%
DC 1X 63%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Valladolid 29% Draw 26% Castellón 46%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Valladolid and Castellón?

Our prediction for the Valladolid–Castellón match is: over 2.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Castellón to win (46% confidence); Valladolid to win or draw (63% confidence); both teams to score: yes (65% confidence)

Valladolid

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Valladolid scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

Castellón

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Castellón scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 0.60 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Valladolid and Castellón average 4.60 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 2.5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, J. Ponceau contributed 2 goal(s) and 4 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.63/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Israel Suero contributed 4 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.60/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Castellón records a mean of 7.13/10 versus 6.61/10 for Valladolid.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list G. Almada for Valladolid and J. Plat for Castellón. The latest recorded formations are Valladolid in 4-3-3 (Nov 8, 2026) and Castellón in 4-4-2 (Nov 1, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Valladolid averaged 47.8% possession and 14.1 shots per match (6.0 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Castellón averaged 60.7% possession and 14.2 shots (5.1 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is possession share.

Home and away performance

In 6 recent home matches, Valladolid recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, averaging 2.00 points, 2.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Away from home, Castellón recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in 6 matches, averaging 2.17 points, 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Segunda División fixture takes place at Estadio José Zorrilla (Valladolid).

Recent results show that Valladolid have a stronger record at home than away: 4 wins in 6 home matches, averaging 2.0 points per home match compared with 1.2 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.64 — 1.59 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

139%Valladolid
X25%Draw
237%Castellón
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 84%U 16%
O/U 2.5O 62%U 38%
O/U 3.5O 40%U 60%
O/U 4.5O 22%U 78%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Valladolid
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Valladolid.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 81%

A different goal line with 81% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 81%U 19%
1.5O 49%U 51%
2.5O 23%U 77%
3.5O 8%U 92%
Castellón
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 92%

The model assigns 92% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Castellón.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 80%

A different goal line with 80% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 80%U 20%
1.5O 47%U 53%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 8%U 92%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Valladolid20%
Castellón19%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Valladolid16%
Castellón15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Valladolid51%
Castellón49%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Valladolid
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 19%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 25%L 37%
+0.5W 63%P 0%L 37%
+1W 63%P 18%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Castellón
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 18%L 63%
-0.5W 37%P 0%L 63%
0W 37%P 25%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 19%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.15%
#22-18.43%
#31-28.19%
#42-26.70%
#51-05.89%
Combined Top 540.36%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Valladolid + BTTS23%
Castellón + BTTS22%
Draw + BTTS20%

Valladolid Season

Rank#12
Points18
Matches Left25

Castellón Season

Rank#2
Points27
Matches Left26

Valladolid Last 5

Sporting Gijon 1 - 2
Leganes 4 - 3
Granada CF 2 - 1
Eldense 2 - 3
Albacete 5 - 0

Castellón Last 5

Burgos 1 - 1
Sporting Gijon 4 - 0
Las Palmas 0 - 3
FC Andorra 1 - 0
AD Ceuta FC 1 - 1

Head-to-Head

Valladolid: 1 Draws: 0 Castellón: 1
2026 Valladolid 0 - 4 Castellón
2025 Castellón 0 - 1 Valladolid

Form Analysis

Valladolid
W W L L W
Castellón
D W W L D

Valladolid Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.50
Goals scored15
Goals conceded10
Matches6
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.67

Castellón Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.57
Goals scored11
Goals conceded4
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.57

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Valladolid
1.75
Castellón
1.72

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Valladolid vs Castellón is a Football football match on November 14, 2026 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Recent form is 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: WWLLW) for Valladolid and 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: DWWLD) for Castellón. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 14 Nov 2026
📍 Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Valladolid is currently #12 with 18 points from 13 matches, while Castellón is #2 with 27 points from 12. Recent head-to-head history: Valladolid won 1, 0 were drawn and Castellón won 1 across the last 2 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Valladolid at 2.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per home match, versus Castellón at 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.75 for Valladolid and 1.72 for Castellón.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.