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Wolves
D W W W D
VS
AI Predicts: 2-0
Away

Derby
L D L L W
1X2 Wolves 68%
O/U Over 1.5 78%
DC 1X 85%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Wolves 68% Draw 16% Derby 16%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Wolves and Derby?

Our prediction for the Wolves–Derby match is: Wolves to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Wolves to win (68% confidence); over 1.5 goals (78% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Wolves

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Wolves scored an average of 1.60 goals and conceded 0.60 per match.

Derby

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Derby scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 2.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Wolves scored 1.60 and conceded 0.60 per match across 5 covered games; Derby scored 1.00 and conceded 2.20 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, A. Armstrong contributed 3 goal(s) and 0 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.64/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, C. Morris contributed 0 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.78/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Wolves records a mean of 6.84/10 versus 6.30/10 for Derby.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Vítor Pereira for Wolves and J. Eustace for Derby. The latest recorded formations are Wolves in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 7, 2026) and Derby in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 6, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Wolves averaged 55.3% possession and 17.3 shots per match (4.4 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 10 matches, Derby averaged 48.7% possession and 12.8 shots (4.1 on target), a a more balanced possession and shot profile profile. The clearest contrast in this sample is shot production.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Wolves recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.00 points, 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match. Away from home, Derby recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 4 matches, averaging 0.50 points, 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Championship fixture takes place at Molineux Stadium (Wolverhampton).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Wolves: 2.0 points per home match compared with 1.8 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.74 — 1.37 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

146%Wolves
X25%Draw
229%Derby
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 82%U 18%
O/U 2.5O 60%U 40%
O/U 3.5O 38%U 62%
O/U 4.5O 20%U 80%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Wolves
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 90%

The model assigns 90% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Wolves.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 83%U 17%
1.5O 52%U 48%
2.5O 25%U 75%
3.5O 10%U 90%
Derby
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Derby.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 75%U 25%
1.5O 40%U 60%
2.5O 16%U 84%
3.5O 5%U 95%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Wolves25%
Derby17%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Wolves20%
Derby12%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Wolves61%
Derby39%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Wolves
-1.5W 25%P 0%L 75%
-1W 25%P 21%L 54%
-0.5W 46%P 0%L 54%
0W 46%P 25%L 29%
+0.5W 71%P 0%L 29%
+1W 71%P 16%L 13%
+1.5W 87%P 0%L 13%
Derby
-1.5W 13%P 0%L 87%
-1W 13%P 16%L 71%
-0.5W 29%P 0%L 71%
0W 29%P 25%L 46%
+0.5W 54%P 0%L 46%
+1W 54%P 21%L 25%
+1.5W 75%P 0%L 25%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.53%
#22-19.24%
#31-27.24%
#41-07.11%
#52-06.77%
Combined Top 541.89%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Wolves + BTTS25%
Derby + BTTS17%
Draw + BTTS20%

Wolves Season

Rank#4
Points28
Matches Left23

Derby Season

Rank#23
Points10
Matches Left23

Wolves Last 5

Wrexham 1 - 1
Bristol City 1 - 2
Cardiff 3 - 0
Watford 1 - 0
Portsmouth 1 - 1

Derby Last 5

Bolton 3 - 1
Norwich 0 - 4
Millwall 4 - 1
Sheffield Utd 1 - 1
Stoke City 0 - 1

Head-to-Head

Wolves: 3 Draws: 0 Derby: 2
2018 Wolves 2 - 0 Derby
2017 Derby 0 - 2 Wolves
2017 Derby 3 - 1 Wolves
2016 Wolves 2 - 3 Derby
2016 Wolves 2 - 1 Derby

Form Analysis

Wolves
D W W W D
Derby
W L L D L

Wolves Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.86
Goals scored13
Goals conceded7
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.00

Derby Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored7
Goals conceded15
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.14

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Wolves
2.00
Derby
0.86

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Wolves vs Derby is a Football football match on November 24, 2026 at Molineux Stadium. Recent form is 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses (form: DWWWD) for Wolves and 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: WLLDL) for Derby. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 24 Nov 2026
📍 Molineux Stadium

Standings & Context

In the Football standings, Wolves is currently #4 with 28 points from 15 matches, while Derby is #23 with 10 points from 15. Recent head-to-head history: Wolves won 3, 0 were drawn and Derby won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Wolves at 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home match, versus Derby at 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.00 for Wolves and 0.86 for Derby.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.