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Flamengo
W W W W W
VS
AI Predicts: 2-1
Away

Atletico Paranaense
W L D L L
1X2 Flamengo 71%
O/U Over 2.5 69%
DC 1X 85%
BTTS Yes 65%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Flamengo 71% Draw 15% Atletico Paranaense 14%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense?

Our prediction for the Flamengo–Atletico Paranaense match is: Flamengo to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Flamengo to win (71% confidence); over 2.5 goals (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (65% confidence)

Flamengo

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Flamengo scored an average of 2.80 goals and conceded 0.80 per match.

Atletico Paranaense

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Atletico Paranaense scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.80 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Home or Draw (1X): Flamengo scored 2.80 and conceded 0.80 per match across 5 covered games; Atletico Paranaense scored 1.20 and conceded 1.80 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Samuel Lino contributed 3 goal(s) and 2 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.75/10 across 5 rated appearances. Across 5 recent recorded appearances, Luiz Gustavo contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.16/10 across 5 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Flamengo records a mean of 7.00/10 versus 6.52/10 for Atletico Paranaense.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Marcelo Salles for Flamengo and Odair Hellmann for Atletico Paranaense. The latest recorded formations are Flamengo in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 4, 2026) and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 4, 2026). Across 9 recent matches with possession and shot data, Flamengo averaged 58.2% possession and 19.2 shots per match (7.9 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Atletico Paranaense averaged 51.9% possession and 16.0 shots (5.4 on target), a high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 7 recent home matches, Flamengo recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, averaging 3.00 points, 2.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per match. Away from home, Atletico Paranaense recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 matches, averaging 1.00 points, 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estádio do Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro).

Recent results show that Flamengo have a stronger record at home than away: 7 wins in 7 home matches, averaging 3.0 points per home match compared with 2.5 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.86 — 1.44 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

147%Flamengo
X24%Draw
229%Atletico Paranaense
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes65%
No35%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 85%U 15%
O/U 2.5O 64%U 36%
O/U 3.5O 42%U 58%
O/U 4.5O 24%U 76%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Flamengo
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 88%

The model assigns 88% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Flamengo.

Possible alternative Over 0.5 goals · 84%

A different goal line with 84% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 84%U 16%
1.5O 55%U 45%
2.5O 28%U 72%
3.5O 12%U 88%
Atletico Paranaense
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Atletico Paranaense.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 76%U 24%
1.5O 42%U 58%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Flamengo24%
Atletico Paranaense16%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Flamengo19%
Atletico Paranaense11%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Flamengo61%
Atletico Paranaense39%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Flamengo
-1.5W 26%P 0%L 74%
-1W 26%P 21%L 53%
-0.5W 47%P 0%L 53%
0W 47%P 24%L 29%
+0.5W 71%P 0%L 29%
+1W 71%P 16%L 14%
+1.5W 86%P 0%L 14%
Atletico Paranaense
-1.5W 14%P 0%L 86%
-1W 14%P 16%L 71%
-0.5W 29%P 0%L 71%
0W 29%P 24%L 47%
+0.5W 53%P 0%L 47%
+1W 53%P 21%L 26%
+1.5W 74%P 0%L 26%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-110.64%
#22-19.16%
#31-27.11%
#42-26.60%
#52-06.35%
Combined Top 539.86%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Flamengo + BTTS27%
Atletico Paranaense + BTTS18%
Draw + BTTS20%

Flamengo Season

Rank#1
Points76
Matches Left4

Atletico Paranaense Season

Rank#5
Points54
Matches Left4

Flamengo Last 5

Gremio 3 - 1
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 4
Atletico-MG 3 - 2
Bahia 0 - 3
Fluminense 1 - 0

Atletico Paranaense Last 5

Vasco DA Gama 1 - 3
Gremio 2 - 0
Vitoria 1 - 1
Palmeiras 0 - 2
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4

Head-to-Head

Flamengo: 2 Draws: 2 Atletico Paranaense: 1
2026 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Flamengo
2024 Flamengo 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
2024 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Flamengo
2023 Flamengo 0 - 3 Atletico Paranaense
2023 Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Flamengo

Form Analysis

Flamengo
W W W W W
Atletico Paranaense
W L D L L

Flamengo Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
2.29
Goals scored16
Goals conceded5
Matches7
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.71

Atletico Paranaense Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.80
Goals scored9
Goals conceded10
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)2.00

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Flamengo
2.54
Atletico Paranaense
1.10

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Brasileirão football match on November 18, 2026 at Maracanã. Recent form is 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses (form: WWWWW) for Flamengo and 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses (form: WLDLL) for Atletico Paranaense. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 18 Nov 2026
📍 Maracanã

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Flamengo is currently #1 with 76 points from 34 matches, while Atletico Paranaense is #5 with 54 points from 34. Recent head-to-head history: Flamengo won 2, 2 were drawn and Atletico Paranaense won 1 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Flamengo at 2.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per home match, versus Atletico Paranaense at 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 2.54 for Flamengo and 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.