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Sao Paulo
W W D L D
VS
AI Predicts: 1-0
Away

Fluminense
L L L W W
1X2 Sao Paulo 47%
O/U Over 1.5 76%
DC 1X 69%
BTTS Yes 62%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Sao Paulo 47% Draw 23% Fluminense 30%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Sao Paulo and Fluminense?

Our prediction for the Sao Paulo–Fluminense match is: over 1.5 goals.

Other OPWIN picks

Sao Paulo to win (47% confidence); Sao Paulo to win or draw (69% confidence); both teams to score: yes (62% confidence)

Sao Paulo

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sao Paulo scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.00 per match.

Fluminense

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Fluminense scored an average of 1.40 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Across the available samples, Sao Paulo and Fluminense average 2.60 goals scored per match combined. That recent scoring pace aligns with Over 1.5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Jonathan Calleri contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.23/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, Agustín Canobbio contributed 1 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.95/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Fluminense records a mean of 6.87/10 versus 6.68/10 for Sao Paulo.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list Machado Roger for Sao Paulo and Renato Gaúcho for Fluminense. The latest recorded formations are Sao Paulo in 3-4-2-1 (Nov 5, 2026) and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 6, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Sao Paulo averaged 49.8% possession and 15.0 shots per match (4.1 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 9 matches, Fluminense averaged 57.6% possession and 12.6 shots (5.0 on target), a possession control with high shot volume profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 7 recent home matches, Sao Paulo recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses, averaging 2.29 points, 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per match. Away from home, Fluminense recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in 6 matches, averaging 1.17 points, 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. This sample favours the home side’s recent home record relative to the away side’s road record.

This Serie A fixture takes place at Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo).

Recent results show that Sao Paulo have a stronger record at home than away: 5 wins in 7 home matches, averaging 2.3 points per home match compared with 0.3 away. This points to a positive home-performance trend.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.57 — 1.47 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

139%Sao Paulo
X26%Draw
235%Fluminense
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes62%
No38%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 81%U 19%
O/U 2.5O 58%U 42%
O/U 3.5O 36%U 64%
O/U 4.5O 19%U 81%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Sao Paulo
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 93%

The model assigns 93% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sao Paulo.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 79%

A different goal line with 79% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 79%U 21%
1.5O 46%U 54%
2.5O 21%U 79%
3.5O 7%U 93%
Fluminense
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Fluminense.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 43%U 57%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Sao Paulo23%
Fluminense21%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Sao Paulo17%
Fluminense15%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Sao Paulo53%
Fluminense47%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Sao Paulo
-1.5W 20%P 0%L 80%
-1W 20%P 20%L 61%
-0.5W 39%P 0%L 61%
0W 39%P 26%L 35%
+0.5W 65%P 0%L 35%
+1W 65%P 18%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Fluminense
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 18%L 65%
-0.5W 35%P 0%L 65%
0W 35%P 26%L 39%
+0.5W 61%P 0%L 39%
+1W 61%P 20%L 20%
+1.5W 80%P 0%L 20%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-111.97%
#22-18.64%
#31-28.10%
#41-06.83%
#50-16.36%
Combined Top 541.90%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Sao Paulo + BTTS22%
Fluminense + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Sao Paulo Season

Rank#10
Points44
Matches Left4

Fluminense Season

Rank#4
Points54
Matches Left5

Sao Paulo Last 5

Corinthians 0 - 0
Bahia 3 - 2
Mirassol 1 - 1
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0
Vitoria 2 - 1

Fluminense Last 5

Vitoria 0 - 3
Internacional 2 - 1
Chapecoense-sc 2 - 1
Santos 1 - 2
Flamengo 1 - 0

Head-to-Head

Sao Paulo: 2 Draws: 0 Fluminense: 3
2026 Fluminense 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
2025 Fluminense 6 - 0 Sao Paulo
2025 Sao Paulo 3 - 1 Fluminense
2024 Fluminense 2 - 0 Sao Paulo
2024 Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Fluminense

Form Analysis

Sao Paulo
D L D W W
Fluminense
W L L L W

Sao Paulo Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.47
Goals scored25
Goals conceded13
Matches17
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)0.76

Fluminense Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.31
Goals scored21
Goals conceded25
Matches16
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.56

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo
1.44
Fluminense
1.23

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense is a Brasileirão football match on November 19, 2026 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi). Recent form is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses (form: DLDWW) for Sao Paulo and 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (form: WLLLW) for Fluminense. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 19 Nov 2026
📍 Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi)

Standings & Context

In the Brasileirão standings, Sao Paulo is currently #10 with 44 points from 34 matches, while Fluminense is #4 with 54 points from 33. Recent head-to-head history: Sao Paulo won 2, 0 were drawn and Fluminense won 3 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Sao Paulo at 1.47 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per home match, versus Fluminense at 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 1.44 for Sao Paulo and 1.23 for Fluminense.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.