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Sunderland
L D D L L
VS
AI Predicts: 0-1
Away

Chelsea
L W W L W
1X2 Chelsea 58%
O/U Under 2.5 65%
DC X2 71%
BTTS Yes 59%
OpWin AI Probabilities
Sunderland 20% Draw 22% Chelsea 58%
OPWIN EXPERT READ · SCV1.1

What is the prediction for the football match between Sunderland and Chelsea?

Our prediction for the Sunderland–Chelsea match is: Chelsea to win or draw.

Other OPWIN picks

Chelsea to win (58% confidence); under 2.5 goals (65% confidence); both teams to score: yes (59% confidence)

Sunderland

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Sunderland scored an average of 0.40 goals and conceded 1.60 per match.

Chelsea

Across the 5 most recent finished matches with available data, Chelsea scored an average of 1.80 goals and conceded 1.20 per match.

How the recent evidence fits the pick

Recent results add context to Double chance: Draw or Away (X2): Sunderland scored 0.40 and conceded 1.60 per match across 5 covered games; Chelsea scored 1.80 and conceded 1.20 across 5.

Players to watch

Across 4 recent recorded appearances, N. Angulo contributed 0 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 6.66/10 across 4 rated appearances. Across 4 recent recorded appearances, J. Henderson contributed 2 goal(s) and 1 assist(s). Available ratings average 7.24/10 across 4 rated appearances.

Recent squad-performance signal

Across recent rated squad performances used by Team Intelligence, Chelsea records a mean of 6.78/10 versus 6.34/10 for Sunderland.

Tactical matchup and recent shapes

The current records list R. Le Bris for Sunderland and Xabi Alonso for Chelsea. The latest recorded formations are Sunderland in 4-2-3-1 (Nov 5, 2026) and Chelsea in 4-2-3-1 (Oct 31, 2026). Across 10 recent matches with possession and shot data, Sunderland averaged 51.7% possession and 15.4 shots per match (4.9 on target), a high shot volume profile. Across 7 matches, Chelsea averaged 51.0% possession and 12.9 shots (5.7 on target), a a strong average volume of shots on target profile. The recorded numbers do not show a pronounced gap in possession or shot volume.

Home and away performance

In 5 recent home matches, Sunderland recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, averaging 0.80 points, 0.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match. Away from home, Chelsea recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in 3 matches, averaging 1.00 points, 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. These split records do not show a clear points-per-match advantage for either side.

This Premier League fixture takes place at Stadium of Light (Sunderland).

Recent results show no clear home advantage for Sunderland: 0.8 points per home match compared with 0.8 away, with performance varying between matches.

This OPWIN expert read combines the existing model pick with recorded football evidence. Match outcomes remain uncertain.

Premium Match Markets Premium markets based on the latest match assessment.
Premium Expected goals 1.40 — 1.46 Reliability 100%
1X2 — Match Result

The 1X2 market estimates a home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).

135%Sunderland
X26%Draw
238%Chelsea
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

BTTS Yes means both teams score at least once; No means at least one team fails to score.

Yes59%
No41%
Over / Under Goals

Each line estimates whether the match total will finish above or below the stated goals threshold.

O/U 1.5O 79%U 21%
O/U 2.5O 54%U 46%
O/U 3.5O 32%U 68%
O/U 4.5O 16%U 84%
Team Goals: Home / Away

Team-goals markets estimate each side’s scoring total separately, regardless of who wins the match.

Sunderland
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 95%

The model assigns 95% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Sunderland.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 83%

A different goal line with 83% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 75%U 25%
1.5O 41%U 59%
2.5O 17%U 83%
3.5O 5%U 95%
Chelsea
More model-supported option Under 3.5 goals · 94%

The model assigns 94% to this outcome, the strongest probability among the listed goal lines for Chelsea.

Possible alternative Under 2.5 goals · 82%

A different goal line with 82% model probability; it is less supported than the leading option and carries more uncertainty.

0.5O 77%U 23%
1.5O 43%U 57%
2.5O 18%U 82%
3.5O 6%U 94%

These probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or proof of betting value. Available odds and match context still matter.

Clean Sheet

A clean sheet means the selected team concedes zero goals, whether it wins or draws.

Sunderland23%
Chelsea25%
Win to Nil

The selected team must win and concede no goals. This is narrower than a clean sheet because a draw does not qualify.

Sunderland17%
Chelsea18%
Draw No Bet

The displayed shares compare home and away wins only; if the match is drawn, a standard Draw No Bet stake is returned.

Sunderland48%
Chelsea52%
Asian Handicap

The handicap adjusts the final goal difference by the selected line. W/P/L show estimated win, push/refund and loss outcomes after that adjustment.

Sunderland
-1.5W 17%P 0%L 83%
-1W 17%P 19%L 65%
-0.5W 35%P 0%L 65%
0W 35%P 26%L 38%
+0.5W 62%P 0%L 38%
+1W 62%P 20%L 18%
+1.5W 82%P 0%L 18%
Chelsea
-1.5W 18%P 0%L 82%
-1W 18%P 20%L 62%
-0.5W 38%P 0%L 62%
0W 38%P 26%L 35%
+0.5W 65%P 0%L 35%
+1W 65%P 19%L 17%
+1.5W 83%P 0%L 17%
Dutching — Exact Score

OPWIN ranks the five most likely exact-score scenarios. Each percentage is the modelled probability of that score; Combined Top 5 adds those five probabilities.

#11-112.60%
#21-28.52%
#32-18.17%
#40-17.66%
#51-07.32%
Combined Top 544.27%
How Dutching works with $100

Dutching splits one total stake across mutually exclusive exact-score outcomes; each stake is set inversely to its decimal odds to target a similar gross payout if one selected score lands. Illustration only: with $100 and hypothetical decimal odds of 8.00 (1–1), 10.00 (1–2), 11.00 (2–1), 13.00 (2–2) and 14.00 (0–1), the stakes would be about $26.92, $21.54, $19.58, $16.57 and $15.39. If one of these scores lands, the gross return would be about $215.40 before fees or other conditions. If the final score is outside the five, the full $100 is lost. These are example odds, not live prices: OPWIN percentages are model probabilities, not bookmaker odds or stake recommendations.

Winner + BTTS

This combination requires the selected match result and both teams to score at least once.

Sunderland + BTTS19%
Chelsea + BTTS20%
Draw + BTTS20%

Sunderland Season

Rank#20
Points5
Matches Left29

Chelsea Season

Rank#4
Points16
Matches Left29

Sunderland Last 5

Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 2
Coventry 3 - 1
Leeds 0 - 0
Lech Poznan 1 - 1
Bournemouth 2 - 0

Chelsea Last 5

Manchester United 2 - 0
Tottenham 0 - 2
Everton 0 - 2
Bournemouth 5 - 1
Brentford 3 - 0

Head-to-Head

Sunderland: 3 Draws: 0 Chelsea: 2
2026 Sunderland 2 - 1 Chelsea
2025 Chelsea 1 - 2 Sunderland
2017 Chelsea 5 - 1 Sunderland
2016 Sunderland 0 - 1 Chelsea
2016 Sunderland 3 - 2 Chelsea

Form Analysis

Sunderland
L D D L L
Chelsea
L W W L W

Sunderland Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
0.20
Goals scored1
Goals conceded6
Matches5
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.20

Chelsea Performance

⚔️ Efficiency (Goals / Match)
1.00
Goals scored3
Goals conceded5
Matches3
🛡️ Defense (Conceded / Match)1.67

Match Statistics

Detailed match statistics will appear after the match.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sunderland
0.93
Chelsea
1.17

Live Commentary & Analysis

Match Preview

Sunderland vs Chelsea is a Premier League football match on November 8, 2026 at Stadium of Light. Recent form is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (form: LDDLL) for Sunderland and 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses (form: LWWLW) for Chelsea. This match preview combines team statistics, recent form, head-to-head context and available prediction insights to explain the fixture.

📅 8 Nov 2026
📍 Stadium of Light

Standings & Context

In the Premier League standings, Sunderland is currently #20 with 5 points from 9 matches, while Chelsea is #4 with 16 points from 9. Recent head-to-head history: Sunderland won 3, 0 were drawn and Chelsea won 2 across the last 5 meetings.

Performance Analysis

The performance profile shows Sunderland at 0.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per home match, versus Chelsea at 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per away match. Expected goals (xG) are estimated at 0.93 for Sunderland and 1.17 for Chelsea.

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated based on statistics. Please gamble responsibly.